starsearcher40 wrote: Mayhem, you bring up some decent points worth responding.
1) I agree that the sector is overbought, and still very much in transition from "fast money" to "investment". You are correct that it is not a Canopy thing, however Canopy IS the post child stock of the sector, and probably accounted for the biggest interest in fast money.
2) With regard to Germany, you make a good point that other companies that did get licences didn't have the bump up you might have thought. I think this is due to a couple of things. First, they don't have the free cash to do much right now. Secondly, with the sector maturing, those things that might have captured the imagination a year ago, are now just regular courses of action in a multi multi year process. Go back to point #1. Fast money is out and the sector is overbought. I would say news today, and the response to it, is pretty stunning proof of this concept presented here. I'm sure the "to the moon" crowd over on other German-license stocks had a heavy smacking of WTF today. Dashed hopes of fast gains are never easy to swallow and naturally lead to a certain disillusionment. Personally, I call it a dose of reality. Still though, there will be some who want to rally the cause: Buy the dip! To the Moon! Just around the corner! Time to get real folks. Today was an exceptional example of reality in play.
3) You can try and sugar-coat things any way you want Mayhem. Canopy has seen a few screwups lately and that is screaming obvious. Jumping planting without HC in place.Some crop failure...don't really know on that one. And like it or not, Germany (stating the obvious) was mishandled BADLY. It is what it is. That some other companies that I consider clear 2nd stringers scooped Canopy is not so much their win as Canopy's fail.
NOT kicking investors when they are down. I would like nothing more than for everyone here to make money. It is tough as Hell to do this on a consistent basis. You can learn from those who have been around the block. Or you can learn via the ruthless lessons the market WILL teach you. It's worth noting that I easily suspect most people are of the latter camp. I know I was for far too long. NOT fun at all. Quite painful actually.
Best wishes in your own best decisions.
480Mayham wrote: I'll bump this message to the top for ease of reading.
Please note that ACB and APH who did receive the German licences had larger losses than Canopy today. Back to the drawing board SS40. I know you are ready to pounce on any type of drop to justify your arguement but this is a sector issue NOT Canopy related. Canopy is the Global Leader and will bounce back as it always does. Are we in for a further drop? Probably, only because of the general markets though. Please note it may not work out as badly as you may think. If President Chump would quit opening his filthy trap we might have been okay today. He should work towards an agreement with China so investors can benefit. Anyway I do feel as though I am fighting a tough battle in the short term because we are currently in a bear sector. I have no bullets right now so I'll settle and see how things play out over the next week. SS40 I think you would gain much more respect around here is you didn't try kicking good investors when they are " slighlty " down.
Mayham
480Mayham wrote: starsearcher40 wrote: Well "to the moon" crowd, it looks like the market is teaching you the lesson you just didn't want to learn. The question here is, are you going to be deer in the headlights, again? But wait. There's a difference here. While the correction last time was just on a vastly overinflated bubble, This time it is much more based on several realities coming home to roost. Here's a sampling.
1) Germany. Wow. That IS disappointing. Bruce was absolutely banking on first/biggest mover opportunity, and now they get to sit and watch...and make nothing of what they hoped to make with a license. I don't have all the details, but there is some bad blood between Canopy and Germany, but my understanding is that is based more in a personality clash with Bruce. Although I don't have the specifics, I have heard this more than once from different corners. I could see it making some sense from a cultural perspective. I really like Bruce, but he is not everyone's cup of tea.
2) Fast money. The stock continues to be an overinflated tire, this time wth a slow and steady leak rather than a stunning blowout. In some ways, the blowout is easier to deal with as the the bounce off the bottom can be equally strong...and was. However the slow incessant leak can be equally damaging. Death by a thousand cuts is death all the same. Canopy is now down over 15% from the recent highs, and that is with a massive general market tailwind. If this market turns (which I still say is coming although it's taking longer than I would ever have expected), it's going to be a rough ride. Even with the market remaining stable or up, I have no problem seeing Canopy touching back to $48. Lower still? We'll see. But $48 represents another 10% drop, making the total drop now 25%. I know. I know. Those married to the stock will remain blind. Hey, it's your money. If you're good with a further drop, good for you...I suppose.
3) There is still a process of much needed realigning of how investors view this company. It is no longer fast money. It is no longer easy money. It remains overpriced. It is a long term investment. If that's your plan...as in 5-10 years...ok, you'll win big over that timeframe. If you think you're lining your pockets with gold any time soon, you're still dillusional imho, and thinking how the company, and the stock, used to be. Those days are over. Naturally over. The company is maturing, as it should.
4) I still don't like Canopy's current attitude. Nothing more than "too big for their britches." Where they previously made all the right moves, there are certainly examples of other companies making better moves. Drunk on their own success to date? Maybe. But getting sloppy has a cost, and these costs are starting to hit home. Crop failure. Mistiming HC permits. Germany. I'm not willing to say "ooops", or "oh, that's too bad." Call it was it is. It's a screwup on each and every one, and there's an emerging pattern there that Bruce and company better get a fix on.
So the question is, are you a deer in the headlights? Are you on the wrong side of the trade, and continuing to watch things erode? If you are anything other than a longest term investor, I would be afraid right now. Imho, there's a drop coming for Canopyaand it's not going to be pretty.
Decade long investors...carry on. Anyone else, imho give your head a shake and snap out of that blind glazed look. It's not a matter of always being right. Longevity in the market is more based on being wrong QUICKLY, and solving that "wrongness" with the appropriate trade. Capital preservation is ALWAYS the first order of business.
Best to all.
SS40, its interesting that you and Bonjour decide to make an appearance on the same day after being away for some time. Just an observation that's all. I'd like to correct you on your bashing of Canopy once again. Below is a page of one of my personal watch lists. Canopy actually held up better than most MJ stocks. Yes it is a loss and yes it is 15% off its high but the whole sector is down. This is NOT Canopy specific but nice try. Not sure if this cut and paste will work out but hopefully you understand my point. All we need is some long awaited good news and we are right back where we should be. Again Canopy was down 2.11% today which was better than most MJ stock out there.
Mayham
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