In March at $1.85 "Based on STEP's challenging macro outlook, driven by persistent market accessissues in Canada, and decreased productivity expectations for the SCOOP/STACKplay in the U.S. (see recent Continental note here), it is hard for us to envisiona scenario where investors are incentivized to build a position, even at today'sdiscounted valuations. As such, we are maintaining our HOLD recommendation and$2.25 target price."
They estimated 2019 EBITDA of only $75 million. That would by a significant margin make 2019 the worst year yet. However it's also important to take into account how much STEP shares have come down since mid 2018.
What is a fair EV/EBITDA multiple for STEP? For a value investor, probably between 3 and 5.
EBITDA for 2020E is projected at $115 million.
To be sure, TCW and CFW trade quite a bit more expensively on EV/EBITDA.
"Based on our 2019E estimates, we note that STEP is tradingbelow its peers on an EV/EBITDAS basis, although the difference is less pronounced after adjusting for its fluid end policy (Exhibit 1)."
"We calculate a value of $2.23/share that we feel is representative of STEP'slong term intrinsic value in a scenario contemplating our price deck."
"Our NAV equates to a 2019EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x."
I would say the best predicator of the share price will be watching the chart action. There's really too many variables to predict how the market is going to value the company.