Bonterra Energy Corp T.BNE

Alternate Symbol(s): BNEFF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Bonterra Energy Corp. is a Canada-based conventional oil and gas company with operations in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia. The Company operates through development and production of oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin segment. Its operating areas include Pembina Cardium and other areas, which include Saskatchewan and Northeast British Columbia. The Company is focused on the development of the Pembina and Willesden Green Cardium lands within central Alberta. It has Shaunavon properties in the Chambery field, which produce medium density crude oil from the upper Shaunavon formation under waterflood. It also has assets in the Prespatou area of northeast British Columbia, which consists almost entirely of natural gas and associated natural gas liquids. It also has an undeveloped Charlie Lake asset that is prospective for light oil in Bonanza, Alberta. The Company has over 116 net sections of contiguous land in the light oil prone Charlie Lake.

TSX:BNE - Post by User

Bonterra Energy Corp

Bullboard Posts

Comment by CashGreenGoldon Apr 10, 2019 2:04pm

71 Views

Post# 29608223

RE:BNE's Guidance for 2019 and free cash flow estimates

"Do I miss something?"

Yes.

You have the '7' and the '5' in the wrong places.
It's 57mm in capex, not 75.

and 100mm FFO you say, vs 139mm current... I would say your favorable prices have to be a long way back and into the mid 50's.

So BNE will pursue the top end of capex range in the mid 50's..? They 're not. March presentation guides a solid figure, $57mm capex, across a price band up to 65. They might start drilling more if there is expectation to go over 65 perhaps.

But Your 75mm is close to the 77mm set as a top end of a range, in their January release. The March release firmed up a number on the bottom end, and also has a new set of seneitivities set up to $65 WTI, and all run a 57mm capex figure against them.

You're also millions short on the cash flow at 'favorable' oil prices. 40mm more than your 100mm at today's price.

100mm would be $54 oil and a -4 diff. That's a long ways back.
as evidenced below:

Current is below it.

1. to Get 100mm FFO:
>


WTI Price	54
diff	-4
exchange	1.32
	66.00
Quality dis.	-3.25		volume	$$/ Day
Realized	$62.75		7900	$495,725.00

AECO	$1.90		23750	$45,125.00
NGL’s	$39.60		850	$33,660.00
			12708	$574,510.00
		/boe
Revenue	$209,696,150.00	$45.21
COP:
Gorr @ 4.1%	$8,597,542.15	$1.85
Crown @ slide	$14,678,730.50	$3.16
OPEX	$65,867,291.67	$14.20
SG&A	$5,798,177.08	$1.25
Interest	$13,869,239.58	$2.99
COP	$108,810,980.98	$23.46	/qtr
Op netback	$100,885,169.02	$21.75	$25,221,292.25

Less: Sus. Capex	$57,000,000.00	$12.29
		/share
BNE FCF	$43,885,169.02	$1.32	$10,971,292.25

>
>
>
2. 64.20 WTI / 1.60 AECO/ 1.33 USD / -3.5 EDM

WTI Price	64.3
diff	-3.5
exchange	1.33
	80.86
Quality dis.	-3.25		volume	$$/ Day
Realized	$77.61		7900	$613,150.60

AECO	$1.60		23750	$38,000.00
NGL’s	$48.52		850	$41,240.64
			12708	$692,391.24
		/boe
Revenue	$252,722,802.60	$54.48
COP:
Gorr @ 4.1%	$10,361,634.91	$2.23
Crown @ slide	$17,690,596.18	$3.81
OPEX	$65,867,291.67	$14.20
SG&A	$5,798,177.08	$1.25
Interest	$13,869,239.58	$2.99
COP	$113,586,939.42	$24.49	/qtr
Op netback	$139,135,863.18	$30.00	$34,783,965.79

Less: Sus. Capex	$57,000,000.00	$12.29
		/share
BNE FCF	$82,135,863.18	$2.47	$20,533,965.79

Less:
Dividend	$3,987,720.00	$0.01	1.67%

Residual	$78,148,143.18	$2.35	32.71%
Free Cash Yeild	34.38%		34.38%
P/ Free Cash	2.91	x