RE:RE:RE:BNE's Guidance for 2019 and free cash flow estimatesStockfy, I'm getting the impression that you are purposely distoring the circumstances to fit your narrative towards BNE - i.e. you are fixed on BNE not having the ability to increase it's dividend, and thus are trying to reverse construct a set of numbers that supports that view.
Why not just be honest with the numbers.
115mm FFO again, is a far cry from where they are currently.
Currently they're at 140mm FFO, and there is over 80mm discretionary annualized. Not 53mm.
You've gone from 100mm, now to 115mm.
The presentation is based off a -9 EDM which to date has been more than 2-3x higher than the prevailing figure. WTI would have to drop to $57 at current EDM to make 115mm.
WTI is currently $64.50, not $57. EDM is currently $80, not $70.
The difference is very material, and means that BNE can certainly raise the dividend if it would like to, and still have plenty of cash for debt reduction. If they do not, it is a matter of choice, not from limitation as you are presenting it.