RE:Q1 productionI'm not happy with the Costerfield production numbers going into 2019. The focus will be on the Brunswick grades as Duffy stated "Production was also ramping up on the Brunswick lode, which will be the primary source of Costerfield production over 2019.” As gandoplh has pointed out to me, there will be dewatering in the Youle deposit which could delay the production start from Youle. So, all focus will be on the grades and costs pertaining to the mining of Brunswick deposit.
Conversely, the Bjorkdal gold production is heading up. Here is the production guidance from the investor presentation:
2019E production (AuEq): 50,000-56,000 oz
2020E production (AuEq): 53,000-59,000 oz
And here is the quarterly production from Bjorkdal 1Q19 production numbers (not sales): 14385 Au oz.
This puts the forecasted annual production at 14385 X 4 = 57,540 Au oz. This exceeds the 2019E production upper end thus putting it into the 2020E. Even hitting the 2021E production range could be achievable given the grades coming from Aurora. Duffy stated in the PR "to continue developing operational improvements at Bjrkdal to lift the processed grade higher". I believe the new haulage trucks are suppose to have a lower operating cost and higher capacity -> redeuced mining costs.
By year end, Bjorkdal production could very well put a major dent in the Costerfield short fall as the Brunswick production continues to ramp up. Lets hope the 2Q19 production numbers for Costerfield will erode the 29% short fall. It should be noted that Duffy didn't re-forecast the Costerfield production numbers in the PR. So, this is something to watch for as we proceed forward with the remainder of 2019.