RE:My take on Q1
You should redo your math IMO.
There is no way that oil % of production went down to 31% in Q1 from 41% in Q4 assuming volumes of 12,700 boe/d which is what they were producing without these new super wells that got tied in after Q4. Chedder wells are quite oily by the way or not at all gas wells.
If you tell me that they produced 15,000 boe/d maybe ok but, certainly not at same rate as Q4.
Moreover, all in cash costs were $12.54/boe in Q4 vs $13.30/boe as you assume. Why? I mean if gas production went up a lot vs oil, then this should head down.
Finally, field netbacks before hedges were $16.58/boe in Q4 or in what was one of the most disastrous production period in Canadian history. The rebound in price since early December has been historic. Field netbacks should be closer to $30/boe vs $21.