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Royal Nickel Corp. RNKLF



GREY:RNKLF - Post by User

Comment by pierregon May 05, 2019 8:51am
115 Views
Post# 29711982

RE:RE:RE:RE:Beta hunt

RE:RE:RE:RE:Beta hunt arh0070 I disagree with what you wrote and I believe its to create FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).  
 
He wrote: «Not one the best gold mines ever found. »  Speculation as it is in the early stages of its development.
 
He wrote: «There are just loads of shares out there. »  I believe the company is being strategic in their development and I think a share consolidation won’t be needed short-term. Is a larger float worrisome? I disagree as RNX has comparatively fewer outstanding shares at 497,797,912 than ABX 1,751,516,088 or AAPL 4,715,280,000. Has it limited their growth? @Huntore March 22nd 2019: «How about facts opposed to thoughts - Researchers at the Stern School of Business at NYU and Emory University looked at more than 40 years of data, from 1962 to 2001, and found that of the 1,600 reverse stock splits, shares underperformed their non-split peers by 15.6% in the first year following the split, 36% in the second year and 54% in the third year. Draw your own conclusions. » @Huntore April 20th 2019: «I prefer that they forego any reverse-splits or buybacks and grow this company the old fashioned way. Start with getting the mining operation up to full production and putting up profit numbers on a consistent basis. Let the company grow into the share float. Relying on profits rather than increasing debt levels or further dilution is the best option presently in my opinion. What will I be watching for? RNXs’ most-important fundamental data for us as investors, the all-in sustaining costs per ounce mined. AISCs include all direct cash costs, but then add on everything else that is necessary to maintain and replenish operations at current gold-production levels. These additional expenses include exploration for new gold to mine to replace depleting deposits, mine-development and construction expenses. They also include the corporate-level administration expenses necessary to oversee the mines. All-in sustaining costs are the most-important gold-mining cost metric by far for investors, revealing gold miners’ true operating profitability; which will directly drive profitability which ultimately determines stock prices. I believe that investors look for production growth above everything else, as it is linked to company growth. I am assuming that the mine manager will want to sequence processing to ensure that higher-grade ores are fed into the mill in Q3, yielding more ounces produced despite fixed mill throughputs. Why? They seem to like to process their higher-grade ores in Q3s when bonus calculations are on the horizon, and their lower-grade ores in Q1s when year-ends are far away. Will RNXs’ up-coming ore production report in Mid-May reflect the true production possibilities for the entire year of 2019? This will be answered in the spring of 2020. I realize that there is a developing consensus on this board to do something about the size of the float and that my stance seems to be out of sync. I believe at this early stage of direction change and development the company needs to prove the resource and that it can be mined at a consistent profit. »
Also, RNX ran from $0,09 on September 7th 2018 to a closing at $1,15 on September 24th 2018 so did shares outstanding limit the stock price?
 
He wrote: «investors are selling because they don’t believe all the hype. »   Why are some shareholders selling?
-The bought deal was at $0.49 per share;
-The HGO purchase option hasn’t yet been concluded;
-Stock manipulation;
-From @Golfinger April 30th 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/index?c461ee53cef3: «RBC: " The Juniors are trading at the largest discount of 39% versus the group’s historical average of 0.94x." - RBC basically making the case that the junior #gold miners are at the lowest valuation levels since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis.  $GDXJ https://cdn.ceo.ca/1ecgush-Gold_Producers_P_NAV.png »;
-Disinformation on RNX platforms;
-Not enough news releases to reassure.
 
Why are some shareholders holding and buying?
 
-Analysts updates and perceived upside:
Cantor Fitzgerald Equity Research - Corporate Update May 2nd 2019 Buy Recommendation, 12 month target $1.20 per share. The following 9 pages report goes in depth: https://cdn.ceo.ca/1ecmg3s-20190502RNX.pdf Initially from stockmaster989 on Stockhouse May 2nd 2019 as per https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.rnx&postid=29702354
 
Red Cloud Resource Update Q2/19, Exploration Ongoing, base case $0.93 and upside $1.20
https://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1ecohmo-Red%20Cloud%20May%202nd%20Exploration%20Update.pdf
 
-Production:
From @Lexcon May 2nd 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/@lexcon?57fcc420a1c6 : «I think Cantor is 50% low on 2020 annual production too. They are counting 80k/yr B-H and 20k/yr HGO. But, in about 10 months in 2018 B-H was almost 80k running through the lakewood toll mill. The HGO mill will remove the milling limitation and with the mine output at 2500tpd and the HGO mill capable of 3500tpd (so 2500 tpd will not be a problem) we will increase capacity significantly. The annual utilization time for the lakewood mill assigned to B-H was 38% of the run time. At 95% of the run time of HGO available to B-H that is 2.5 times as much mill time as when they used the toll mill in 2018. They will be at full production for 3Q and 4Q of 2019 using HGO (if they purchase) and that production should give a very good indication of annual output....but if we were 80k/yr using lakewood, then 2.5 times that mill time comes out to potentially 200k+ oz/yr production. The second half of 2019 production rate will tell the story. Plus, the new drill report shows the average grade of the bulk mining area in WF and A zone up significantly from the previous 3g/t so improving grade will boost the final numbers some as well. »
 
From @Brandy May 2nd 2019 as per
https://ceo.ca/rnx?e5e425dee86f : «limited bulk mining has already begun. Full scale production could be the next announcement. Then it’s balls out on Ore production from A zone and a drive to western Flanks as well. A jewelry box is suggested within a sniff away in A zone at the Father’s Day vein which last fall produced more than 30k ounces in a small area with otherworldly bonanza grades... At any moment it’s possible it repeats all over again. »
https://ceo.ca/rnx?c9bed7e309f2 : «Tremendous Catalysts in the next week to two months are due out. Cantor has this at $1.20 target upon 100k ounce per year full production. Some here suggest even more potential than stated. With potential upside approaching full rate of 200k ounces a year in 2020. »
https://ceo.ca/rnx?54191ea8162f: «The CEO Mark Selby has previously stated his goal was 100k production. All This before a local mill and mine purchase added resources and expected production increase of 40 - 50k ounces for 2019 alone. »
 
-Financial:
Q4 profit was $12,794,000 USD and for 2018 the company lowered net loss by 90,78% from $91,061,000 to $ 8,396,000, quite the turnaround.
From @Brandy April 23rd 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/rnx?27b71be8ec52 «Folks here is my guesstimate of Q1-19. Expected range is 10 - 13,000 ounces sold. This on very limited new production of 2,000 ounces and milling of 6 to 7,000 ounces of pad stock at 3.2 g/t, based upon Dec 31 numbers. Combined with specimen sales of 2 to 4,000 ounces. This pulls in approx.. 22 million in revenue for the quarter at today’s POG. Not too shabby, pretty good and nice numbers in my opinion. Note that 13k ounces keeps the numbers just ahead of Q1 2018. I believe this to be an important milestone to meet. »
 
-Drilling results:
«RNC Minerals geological model honed in on many profitable targets over 3 grams per ton with significant widths. The following are geologist comments after drill results.
 
First drill results as per @Billminer https://ceo.ca/rnx?a9f26d77a43c : «In my opinion the initial drill results are very encouraging, especially the intervals intersected in the western flanks shear zone. The extreme high grade interval located at the sed contact provides merit to the model. If one breaks down the results in the wf zone, narrower higher grade material has been encountered. These results only represent a very small quantity of metres drilled thus far, I would expect consistent encouraging results to follow with a few wow intervals that represent jewelry boxes. One has to understand that drill intersections are near underground developed workings. The market will adjust the valuation of rnx accordingly with these results. Remember these are mineable ounces being added. »
 
First drill results as per @Geodan https://ceo.ca/rnx?51d7ebf38d71 : «RNC Website PR Much More Info: Interpretation Broker site PRs missed some key FIGS https://www.rncminerals.com/2019-01-22-RNC-Minerals-Provides-Update-on-Resource-Extension-and-Infill-Drilling-at-Beta-Hunt-Reports-High-Grade-Gold-Intersections-including-First-Coarse-Gold-at-Western-Flanks It also has maps of drill holes, At Western Flanks the richest core already has 3 cores drilled right next to it on trend to left #37, 58, 64 With NO Assays Yet :-) See link. So richesh one (7621 Gram/ton) is only one assayed in that section or to left, 3 more sent to assayers already. FIG 2. To right good cores with longer intercepts. To bottom of FIG under Richest one 4 core drills all not assayed yet. Why drill 4 holes there? Maybe plan, maybe cause 1st one had visible gold? Above and to right good assays, then WFN-029 super rich Bonanza one, then all drill holes to left and bottom of 29 no assays yet, but cores being assayed. Back to A Zone,FIG 3 #22,25,20,19, and 6 all of them, every assay in area is above mine grade :-) looks like about 4 grams for bulk ore, or about 50% better than previous bulk ore. Then the 1406 gram/ton bonanza section in the middle of the bulk. Rather amazing not a bad hole assayed yet out of 7 holes at Zone A. OK what about FIG 4? It shows they only mined up from FDV not down at all (easier and normal way to mine overhead) So they drill one hole down there 7 meters below and 1406 Grams/Ton over .5 meters, wow. The FIGS on PR at website make the news a lot more exciting to me. It indicates Western Flanks can have a lot more rich ore, The cores are already done, just waiting for assays. At A Zone it indicates that bonanza ore is right below FDV and it is totally open downward at bonanza grade, there is one one core below the FDV on trend and it hit big time. Cheers. »
 
Second drill results as per @Geodan https://ceo.ca/rnx?713e664ae635: «Have said this drill report is better than Jan one. Checked closely and very true. Jan 2019 https://files.newswire.ca/1573/RNCJAN21A.pdf 18 holes less than 3 Grams Feb 2019 https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/826090/RNC_Minerals_RNC_Minerals_Announces_Beta_Hunt_Drilling_Update__2.pdf Only 2 hole less than 3 Grams were intercepted and one of those holes was extra rich, the sub 3 gram was a secondary vein in same hole. Both lists the same roughly in hole count. So 9 times better in terms of lack of sub 3 gram holes. This is a big deal because Beta made a profit in 2018 on a sub 3 gram Quarter. What about width? Perusing Jan it has only 2 over 10 meter true width intersections (both 11 meters), check it yourself. Feb has 9 over 10 meter intersections. Huge difference. Including four over 15 meters and one 39 meter intersection! And that hole WFN-065 had a second over 10 meter intersection. It is nite and day, glad dug into drill reports. With the exception of the Jan report finding bonanza at WF shear bonanza section first (repeated today) I would rate the Feb drill report as twice as good in terms of how much profit is delineated by drill holes. Increasing grade and width does not increase mining costs much but greatly increase revenue and especially profits. Cheers Beta Hunt Gold and Nickel Operation Q1 2018 Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2017 Gold tonnes mined (000s) Gold mined grade (g/t)1 2.54 2.47 2.24 2.09 1.69 In the Feb drill report, the very worst drill hole was better than the best Q Beta had before, it used to be a 2.25ish gram a ton mine. The deeper look at this Feb drill report the better it looks. »
 
Third drill results as per @Geodan https://ceo.ca/@geodan?0acb4c949f52: «This is not only very good, it is a lot better than prior drill report. So after reading half the report would have to say right now is a superb time to buy RNC stock. They keep saying " grades and widths in excess of the existing resource model. " what that means is that where they knew there was gold before FDV that there is more gold, higher grades and wider veins than they thought. This means that not only the new discoveries will be added to reserves and resources but the old ones were inaccurate in terms of being too conservative. This means the mine will be a lot more profitable than prior estimates. […] WFN-071 – 16.8 g/t over 27.8 m (including 3.1g/t over 7.32 m and 51.9 g/t over 8.55 m including 748 g/t over 0.53 m); Most of the excitement would be on the WFN. That is an amazing drill hole 51.9 g/t over 8.55 m , that is near 2 oz of gold per ton over 28 feet. Just in my head think over $2,000 a ton ore over 28 feet thick bulk minable, wow. That hole is a lot above the sediment layer, interesting. Here is hi-res map https://prnewswire2-a.akamaihd.net/p/1893751/sp/189375100/thumbnail/entry_id/0_9bhxr60g/def_height/1626/def_width/2018/version/100012/type/1 […] https://prnewswire2-a.akamaihd.net/p/1893751/sp/189375100/thumbnail/entry_id/0_9bhxr60g/def_height/1626/def_width/2018/version/100012/type/1 OK on that map which is well done, the old resources in small circles and on right side. The newer big circles are below and to left. The 2 lowest holes are both very good, 015 and 049. The two left most (unexplored area) are 46, 48 and 49, one shared on bottom left corner, and all 3 excellent. So what s going on here? They are drilling to "mine plan" and mine on this area. Tight drilling, this area may be in production soon and will be very profitable and high oz production per day. As they say they are now going into drilling to prospect new areas. What is to the left of this? Looks like will be excellent, it has got wider and richer as they go left from old mined area, and not one hole out there. Their resources are going way up. […] On A zone they did not drill under FDV new holes. Looks like they know they will mine it so no need to dril more holes https://prnewswire2-a.akamaihd.net/p/1893751/sp/189375100/thumbnail/entry_id/0_l8ykk1o7/def_height/1622/def_width/2018/version/100012/type/1 A zone is not as exciting as WFN in this report. That big red dot under 014 label is high grade and new but not spelled out on map. […] https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/881024/RNC_Minerals_RNC_Reports_Multiple_New_High_Grade_Gold_Intersecti.pdf?p=original that is one of two tables. Glad they released all the drilling results, all the holes in 2nd table here https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/881023/RNC_Minerals_RNC_Reports_Multiple_New_High_Grade_Gold_Intersecti.pdf?p=original This looks like they will greatly boost the resources of Beta Hunt and it will be more profitable than prior bulk mining. Now they will explore other Shears and go deep, glad to here that. […] WFN is where the excitement is. This is the best bulk minable ore ever found at Beta. WFN-071 – 16.8 g/t over 27.8 m (including 3.1g/t over 7.32 m and 51.9 g/t over 8.55 m including 748 g/t over 0.53 m); That is a grand slam drill hole. It might be missed by some as so wide at 27.8 meters, but it is super bonanza grade over .53 meters and the rest of 27 meters is good to bonanza grade ore. »
 
Also, RNC Minerals didn’t miss any holes yet again and to put this in perspective from Eric Sprott as per https://ceo.ca/rnx?7adc0cdbcaa6: «the interesting things about the drilling is they didn't miss on any holes, which is a little unusual...no, no, it's a lot unusual that they didn't miss on any holes. »
 
-43-101:
From @Brandy February 25th 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/rnx?30d2219f2556 :  «RNX Cash Cow. upcoming 43-101 RE has potential projection of 1 million ounces or more by late June. Combined with as yet no limit to strike and depth. Life of mine with proven ore is possibly approaching 10 years at 100,000 oz annually. You bet this mine is profitable and you can bet players with deep pockets full of money are dialing in. »
 
-Takeover talk:
From @Lexcon April 12th 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/rnx?67c5ffa20cb9 : «As it currently stands, I believe the MC and share price do not properly reflect the assets in the company. They are going back into production with a combination of lower/mid grade bulk mining and manual extraction of higher grade coarse gold. Once there is a couple of full quarters of full production in place to properly evaluate the assets, along with an updated RE / 43-101 I would not want to accept any offer that was only marginally higher than current prices. If a company came in with an offer that was multiples of current shareprice, then I would consider voting for it, but since I doubt we see that type of offer I would vote against any takeover offer that is not properly valuing the company. »
 
-Lack of common problems Beta Hunt has:
From @Huntore April 29th 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/@huntore?92350632f41a : «Next let's explore the common problems that mining stocks have. How many of these issues does Beta Hunt have? 1. No recovery issues. 2. No locals road-blocking the mine. 3. No water issues. 4. No permitting issues. 5. Safe jurisdiction. 6. Rule of law. 7. No investment needed. 8. No Convertible debt. 9. Trained workforce. 10. Safe rock conditions. 11. No strikes, labor violence. It is hard to think of a single problem they have at Beta Hunt mine. The biggest gold mine in world is Grasberg, it's got half those issues above. The average South African mine has many of those issues and unsafe rock conditions. Beta Hunt is so lacking in problems it’s un-canny, does the market have trouble grasping this? »
 
-Life of mine resource estimates:
goldhunter11: https://ceo.ca/rnx?8f09ebb766e9
NEWBIEVESTOR: https://ceo.ca/rnx?f35a7fc9dd72
@Lexcon : 
https://ceo.ca/@lexcon?83b70beaf095
https://ceo.ca/@lexcon?7a912a3a0a8d 
@Geodan : https://ceo.ca/@pierreg01599501?35f687443a80
@PierreG01599501: 
https://ceo.ca/rnx?898e544198cb
https://cdn.ceo.ca/1e73flk-BH%20Tonnage.docx
Kevin Small as per @Mikeymike426:
 https://ceo.ca/rnx?2e7458af0a78
Mark Selby,:
https://ceo.ca/rnx?53de18056d86
James West:
https://ceo.ca/rnx?ba62ed29458d
 
-Mill purchase option
From Short Form Prospectus April 1st 2019:
«Cost reduction / improvement in cash flow from operating activities. The acquisition of the Higginsville Operations (if the Higginsville Purchase Option is exercised), including a modern, low-cost 1.3 Mtpa gold mill would provide a significantly lower cost milling alternative for Beta Hunt. The Company expects that processing cost savings would be in excess of C$15 per tonne, or a 35% reduction (versus current third-party toll processing costs). »
 
-Due diligence shared that is coherent and reliable.
 
 
He wrote: «The mine has never been particularly profitable. »  Q4 profit was $12,794,000 USD and for 2018 the company lowered net loss by 90,78% from $91,061,000 to $ 8,396,000, quite the turnaround.
 
He wrote: «If it is in the 3-5-gram range on average, with their royalty structure they are toast. If its between 10-15 grams per ton they might have a profitable operation. » Royalties are included within AISC (All-In Sustaining Costs) as per https://www.denvergold.org/wp-content/uploads/DGG-Presentation_GrantMalensek.pdf:
 
«AISC Adjusted Operating Costs; plus
-Corporate General and Administrative expense
-Exploration and study costs (sustaining)
-Capital exploration (sustaining)
-Capitalized op stripping and UG development (sustaining)
-Capital expenditures (sustaining)
= All-In Sustaining Costs
 
Adjusted Operating Costs:
-On-site mining costs
-On-site G&A costs
-Royalties/Production taxes
-Hedging impacts on operating costs
-Community relations costs
-Permitting costs
-3rd party smelting, refining and transport costs
-Non-cash remuneration (site based)
-Stockpiles/product inventory write-downs
-Operational stripping costs
-By-Product credits. »
 
April 5th 2019 https://ceo.ca/rnx?b653b20e4f45 :
RNX gold production costs reduced to USD $698 in 2018 from $1579 USD in 2017.
Mark Selby: «The cash costs going forward is really going to depend on the mix of high grade coarse gold and sort of the bulk production that we have going forward. Again, once we get the resource update and an updated mine plan out subsequent to that, we’ll be able to comment in terms of what that AISC looks like going forward and obviously again, where we end up with on a given transaction will have a big impact on that as well. »
 
From @Lexcon May 2nd 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/rnx?99180497dc01 :
«200k annual with $950 AISC and 1300/oz POG works out to close to 0.12 to 0.14 per share annual ebita. »
 
From @Geodan April 18th 2019 as per https://ceo.ca/@geodan?83985740e4a1:
«Did get some info on questions from company. About what guessed. They think 3 grams or more a ton at widths they are seeing would be quite positive cash flowing to bulk mine, especially with mill if they get it. That matches what see in past. And the drilling they have released is better than what they got in 2017 width and grade wise. What they have been seeing width and grade wise is better than what they expected at both shear zones they have have been drilling. They have not explored much below the sediment layer. I am encouraging them to drill downward in the shears, not from the side, just to gauge how shears grade with depth below sediment layer and maybe hit another sediment layer. The next drill report will give us more data below, but really want to know what is 200, 300 meters down in the shears. Could be a big deal. Now 8% up on RNKLF Some more clarification on that, asked at 8 meters width, so at 8 meters they think 3 grams will cashflow well with the mill. That is more like old widths. They have some 20 to 40 meters widths in new drilling at over 3 grams. That should then be very very profitable IMHO. »

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