The GermansI have come to the conclusion that the Germans are stringing Pieridae along. Right off: I have nothing compelling to back this up with. So its just what my nose tells me.
We pretty much know from indirect but compelling evidence that PEA must have been able to give some concrete non-public confirmation to parties like AIMCO that the German government is behind them. At the same time, the government maintains to MPs that no commitments have been made, and indeed... while PEA obviously struggles both for cash needs that are no longer trifling, and to show investors that they really can put everything together.... Germany continues to withold actually putting any money or written commitments up.
While the clock runs down. So I think it is pretty clear that the German government is quite willing to let this project die on the table. I suspect they still want it to happen, but the limb they are willing to go out on is pretty short.
The only thing that really makes sense is that the German government has made it clear to Alfred and company that they are not willing to be the first big player to make an irreversible commitment. Someone else has to put in big time skin in the game- far more than Alfred and close associates can muster.
It could be that the Germans have made this need clear all along- that even the money for the upstream development (the promise of that allowed them to get IKM) will not be there until after someone else is in the game. Whether that was made clear to PEA all along or the goalposts shifted for PEA, doesnt matter.
Either way... I used to think this "soft FID" business was going to be some fig leaf that would allow the German government to say that the support was to a project that is credible. Just a token show to give political cover to the German government (because there are a lot of consrvative critics of the government's monetary support of LNG).
But now I think the soft FID is something that requires a pretty significant show of financial commitment outside the existing circle.