TS03 Inc Trust Units TSTIF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:TSO3 Inc has a 181 per cent upside, says Echelon Wealth

[JoeyNegroni]

For the record, my "pessimistic" Q1 prediction was still better than what TOS actually achieved in Q1.  And Wong laughed at my forecasts. Still thinking 200 booked/paid-for-in-full sales and installs this year?  ha!  this company is comedy.

JoeyNegroni wrote: @Wong, you are correct... as in football, "Any Given Sunday".  We cannot predict the future.  

Again, with due respect, I believe that your sales conversion rates are preposterous: 60%?!.  We have no education or insight as to the validity and confidence-level of the 200 Getinge quotes.  It is rather effortless to generate a quote for a product or service.  Furthermore, we have such a short sales history that there is no accurate means to forecast and trend sales conversion rates or even estimate quarterly unit sales.  I've worked med sales before for RMD and I could have 1000 leads turn into 500 genuine opportunities resulting in 300 quotes which produced 95 booked orders (and that was considered above-average in my dept).  We do not have enough tangible historical sales and booking data to forecast any trend.

I am sincerely hoping your predictions are more accurate than mine.  My estimate for units are Q1: 15 ;  Q2: 25  ;  Q3:  20, Q4: 25.  FY2019: 85 units.    We are almost 1/3 through Q1 already.  Q2 is traditionally a "good" quarter in med sales (well, it was for myself and other colleagues).  Q3 we have the summer doldrums, and Q4 we get an EOY ramp up in spending.   Maybe we get closer to 100 units resulting from one or two big orders from large customers.

Regardless, even with my optimism, I am at 50% of your unit sales predictions.  And frankly, I think the Street would be happy with 100 units sold in 2019 and RR/GK would be gloating.  Howvever, we would still have on-hand inventory moving into 2020 and the continued potential furlough of QC employees while they slowly chip away at their inventory.  

How many units do we need to sell to stay afloat in 2019 (including recurring and unit sales revenue) while keeping the required min $5M in the bank?  TOS has a moderate cash burn rate.  I don't know the answer to my question, but it is something I may work on over the next week.

Thanks again, Wong for the dialogue.  BR.  GLTA.  -Joe

Drrwong wrote: @Joe:  that is fun part about investing, as none of us know what will happen in the future.  All we can do is to put our best/educated guess forward.

As laid out in a recent post of mine, I laid out my rationale behind my 200+ number:
-  120 from the 200+ quotes:  RR said in a call that all these will come to a decision within 12mths (i.e.: 2019), and I am putting a 60% win rate on these 200 quotes = 120
-  100 from internal sales leads:  we had 18-19 internal orders in 4Q18, and we only had 5-6 reps.  Now that we have 11, I figure we can bump the annual order rate from 76 in Q4 to 100 in 2019
-  GPOs and large IDN orders:  we know there are VP4s out there being trialed by potential customers, and these customers all represent multi-unit order potential.  RR is also working on getting in a few GPOs.  Each of these will be multi-unit large orders, so maybe a total of 20 from these in 2019?
-  Hence, adding it all up yields 240 orders for 2019

For the record, I am wondering what number you have for 2019 and why?  

Thanks and GLTA