GREY:TSTIF - Post by User
Post by
WickedTuna1on Jun 02, 2019 12:39pm
119 Views
Post# 29792295
TidBits...
TidBits... Some food for thought: Just my opinion but we're oversold and "the insulting multiple doesn't reflect the improved fundamentals" Disposable Scopes - Much debate here but BSX announced price of $2500-3000 per Exalt scope so no cost effective vs. $5/reprocessing cost of VP4 once up and running (given VP4 does mix loads at highest cost efficiently) so disposables likely limited to know CRE patients. We're selling (Sterilizers) to CCD for superior throughput economics... no one is buying these based on scopes alone... until FDA/AAMI actually push stronger standards (end of summer) bottom - line disposables actually raise awareness... "Any alternatives out there besides paying $3.5K a scope?!.. yes VP4) Fidelity Holdings - Yes they could finally be out of the stock. My factset says 1.75mm shrs as of Dec... and now latest holding for March is 925K for 3/31... which is month after so 3 months ago... so they're likely almost out of it given current rate of -750K a quarter. Zero institutions left except Caisse that's why we're trading at .30 Cdn ha! 600+ "qualified leads" now post latest conferences... that hospitals with real plans to add a sterilizer so while we won't win all that biz given manpower, existing relationships, etc. point is we should be able to win 33% of those by end of 2020 (remember win rate so far has been a lot higher) so even at 1/3 win rate (super conservative) and most deals being pushed out... we can absolutely get to ~200 by year end which takes risks of Courage and bankruptcy to stock off the table My guess is Q2= 22 and Q3= 20 and typically Q4 budget flush = 50% of the year so Q4= 50-55+ units.... and once we do a group purchase order for large hospital network then our freebie $0 upfront capital program goes ago given rules in those types hospital network programs... remember doing creating things like pre-paying consumables etc so we're getting good cashflow off all deals Doing more on the IFU front... that backs up our ability to support our claims for scopes... I think that is more of a longer term tailwind... just need to get 300 units in the fields (think we almost get to 200 this year plus the balance of ~100) and that's a game changer. Yes a show-me story but we're grinding it out it seems and stock sell off is over done IMO... simple: because of the fiasco with Getinge as everyone knows... our sales dropped 87% (from $25mm down to $3mm) and pretty much so did the stock.... we're now at 3X EV/sales this year and stocks traded as high as 14X.... either way we're looking at 200%+ sales growth (albeit off a low number of $11mm this year vs. just $3mm) but bottom-line the stock should trade back with sales growth as we do $22mm plus this year so i'd imagine we rip higher into Q4. $11mm is way to conservative if we're on track for conservative 150 units and not even counting our consumables revenues. Yes haters will say there is more financial leverage in the business but 6X for 200%+ revenue growth is not heroic which gets retail bk in the stock then hopefully institutions and we're off to the races again...