RE:Transformation. Get your cheap shares today while you can.moeny from selling an asset is not called savings... on your balance sheet you lost the value written for the asset (which was?) and simply do "a one time" transfert on the cash on hand column, it's a "sale". where do you get the 5000 employees number for the Q400???
too bad the family can't issue new shares to rebuilt the chest war and to fund its future projects. doing so they would no longer have their majority control on the board. this is bad and sad for all shareholders to have to suffer their "control freak" issue. that's the reason you go public to have access to capital $$$ but the family won't do it anymore, just kept pilling debt and selling assets or portion of it (transportation)...
as for the rest I do appreciate your vision of the events to come...
good luck
bbdbinvestor145 wrote: Things are starting to change in Bomber land.
The Q's gone today is a significant event. With it have gone 5,000 employees and the Downsview facility commitment. The only thing left now is transfering the rest of the Global/business aircraft manufacturing out of there. Which I'm sure will come to Quebec.
The only other sale left now is Belfast. Which will probably happen by the end of this year.
The Paris Air show shall put the JV with Airbus in a stronger position. Because not only of more orders. But the facility in Alabama will be completed by year end as well. So the A220 will be in full production mode soon as well. So Airbus will start to sell more of the type just to keep the line going with a larger backlog. The Boeing situation with the MAX should help with A220-300 backlog as well, and maybe the introduction of the A220/500 by Airbus. This JV should start to bring value to Bombardier's share in ACLP for 2020.
The other thing of course is the profits increasing from the Q's divestiture. The 5,000 employees reduction for the rest of 2019 should leave the Bomber another $125 million of extra savings in only half the 2019 year. $250 million savings starting the full year of 2020.
If Belfast is gone by year end the savings there will be another $250 million for 2020. That's a savings of $500 million for 2020.
The loss of income from the divestitures is minimal. What I mean by that is? The gross revenues of the Q's and Belfast will be made up by increasing sales (ramp-up) from the increased production revenues of both Globals and BT. These divestiture will increase the profit margins in both BT and Business jets to the 10 to 11% range of the sales.
Couple that with some revenue from ACLP in 2020. So can easily see the picture changing in Bombardier land by the end of 2019, and for sure into 2020.
This is why I'm saying that Bellemare is doing a good job. He's transforming the company slowly. It took a while but we're almost at the end of the line with the sales of assets, and the growth of the divisions to full capacity. This transformation wasn't easy. As it created a lot of confusion in the company. It changed the company's way of doing business. It changed the company's focus from existing facilities to new ones. It changed personnel from area's of freeloading to areas of production. It increased focused on Quality of production. BTW this quality focus is huge, at changing the image of the company. Everyday in the past, it was Bombardier f##cked this up. Bombardier f###cked that up. Well now that's lessening if you noticed. It's now Bombardier has resolved this and that. That's going to be the future of this transformation.
For a lot of us here. It's hard to imagine that this transformation was possible or that it would ever happen. But it's here and is being completed in front of our eyes.
This transformation will change the Share Price too. When the company starts to show steady positive FCF #'s in 2020, all of this negative sentiment will slowly disappear. I know it's hard to believe right now, but it's coming. Peoples perception changes quickly. Real Investors can see a good thing when it's in front of them. Memories of the past are forgotten quickly.
This battle with Bombardiers ineptitude was not EASY. This company had to be transformed. This is why Belleamare get's the big bucks.
By 2020, this company will reinvent itself to a normal company.
People will start putting cash for longer term in the Bomber. Because the prospects of the company will be brighter. People will pay higher prices for the stock. Why. Profits will steady up. Casse's share will be gone. The companies prospects will start look brighter.
I guess this time period of turbulance had to happen, in order to get to here. It wasn't easy as I said. But now I see the light at the end of the tunnel. When did that happen for me? Today. This small trivial closing of the Q's has shown me something I knew all along that they were capable of doing. Get rid of dead weight, and transform the company in the right direction, with new and old profitable programs. Clean this company up. It's happening.
How can you make the public change their attitude about a company and it's stock?? Simple. You change the company. How? Make it run well/seamless and be profitable. In the Bomber case. Less dependent on Govt., subsidies, and public borrowing. More dependent on good, growing, constant revenues. Don't get me wrong here. This perception doesn't change over night. And believe me Bombardiers perception in the investment community isn't hte greatest. Peoples memory is short though. They'll soon forget all the losses they incurred in the past with this company and start to climb on board to get some profits out now that they see the positives. Air Canada was similar. The climb of the shares will come fast and furious. But I don't think we'll see that immense of a change in 2019. We'll see some of it towards the end of 2019. Though, I believe the biggest investment trnsformastion will start in 2020. When Bombardier announces the BUYBACK of Caisse's share.
There is of course the $9.5 billion debt.
I think we'll have close to $2.5 billion in the bank after we pay off Caisse. I've given you those rough numbers in a previous post. So I'll assume you remember them. I think that, when the company is starting fire on all cylinders in 2020, that Bombardier will start to downsize the debt. Bring it down by half a billion yearly at first, until they get that big chunk from the ACLP JV. I think that's very doable. As I've said in the past on many occasions. If they thow $500 million from profits and $500 mill from reserves into the yearly debt every year? The debt will be very manageable in 3-5 years. Because when you bring down the interest portion yearly. It leaves you more money wasted in interest yearly, to throw at the debt every year. This is what's going to stop the silliness in this Share Price manipulation.
This is what I call the tranformation of Bombardier.
Did you guys get the news from Delloitte today? The whole eatables market in weed is estimated at $2.7 bill. Big deal. So the whole weed market annual revenue will be around $10 billion in Canada. Big deal. The bulk of that will go to the Govt.
This weed revelation will make companies like Bombardier investment grade. When the shine of the WEEDS comes off or becomes real. The money will start to flow in good stocks like Bombardier, with real revenues of $18 billion annually.
The Raptors should have won yesterday. They played well except they couldn't score when they needed to. Those shots especially at the end have to fall if they'll have a chance to win against GS. Just saying.
Enjoy your summer. It's here. GLTTL's
Cheers
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