It's a casino folks - what did you expect?Buying ____ (Insert your stock of choice, ARX, Baytex, Methanex, etc etc) is gambling. Not investing. If you get the direction correct iit's merely luck, and nothing else, not becuase you know more than the other guy.
Look at the so called experts....
Eric Nuttall
Josef Schachter
They've been pumping the O&G sector for years. Watch Josef Schachter's BNN videos in particular. These so called experts research and study the industry all day long. They have research teams and resources at their disposal and they have still gotten it wrong. Every time they go on BNN they change their top picks. How can you have a top pick in November, and have a different top pick in February? Cause they don't know what the f**k is happening either. They know nothing. They're guessing like everyone else. But they still want your money...
The research has been consistent - the little guy can't win. You're better off buying a few broad market ETFs and let it go. Even then any true investment gains are dicy - and don't forget to place your stop loss orders so you don't lose your shirt.
And if you don't believe me please look up Gambler's Ruin Theory. I'm not making this stuff up - it's mathematics. And if you don't understand Gambler's Ruin after you read it - God help you, that is if you believe in that kind of thing - easier than investing, that's for sure.