RE:Eight Capital comments on Aleafia Health Inc.
Great post, very interesting information. Keep in mind that 84 million EBITDA by 2021E is slightly conservative. Martin Landry of GMP estimates 74 Million by Q1 2020, and actually has always been basically dead-nuts on the money when it comes to forecasting revenue.
They basically said everything that needs to be said. 1) one of the onlly low-cost outdoor grow producers 2) 60 Mg of pot 3) can take advantage of nearly a full year of growing in the summer.
Also keep in mind that the Aphria supply should kick in at any moment, and the average cost per gram for that for Alef is around 1.90$, it is basically pure profit for Alef with zero effort, even if they went and just sold it directly back to CannTrust to fulfil their 17.5 Mg supply obligations. outdoor grow is the lowest cost product means there is, going to below $0.20 per gram whereas average greenhouse production costs are $0.90 per gram. Even if they can squeek 10 Mg out of this outdoor grow by the end of the summer, that is enough to keep them in the money because they won't be burning capital at such a high rate anymore.
Now, they will need to get the greenhouse license by the end of the summer months, but I dont' see that being that much of an issue. If you peruse reddit you can also see almost weekly pictures people take of the construction progress at port perry, and it is staggering.
To comment to those who say I am a pumper? I am an enthusiast, and as much as you have a negative outlook I have a positive one. I am not a pumper, a pumper says things that aren't true, and ignores glaring problems. What I am saying is that I dont' see glaring problems, and you have never actually once provided any proof of glaring execution errors, despite being asked to do so. I am not a pumper, I am just calling out BS, which is what we should do here. And yes, actually the forumn does have an impact on investor sentiment, because there are very few sources of information available. People come to these forumns to as a starting point to research, and reading false negative statements by BS artists just scares away new investors. It might not be many, but I bet it has some impact.