RE:demand/supply of Li vs. demand/supply of smart and idiotsPart 2
BMO
https://www.mining.com/lithium-demand-battery-makers-almost-double-2027/
This is truly gloomy picture. I am not sure whether BMO hired Kramer like analytics or basic economic principles stopped working.
2018 oversupply - Ok, when prices up new project start, old expand, not many see much further than a year from now.
2019 - 2021. I also understand, oversupply can grow. Money already invested, too late to call back, even if prices are fallen...
That is where my understanding ends...supply is going and going and going...reaching 200K oversupply than 250K oversupply a yea...still going and going...REALLY?
Already many new projects cannot find finding. Who will expand production if there is no market? AT ALL.
Even storage cost will be unaffordable. To add to the idiocy, Li prices from 2021 is not fallen, actually a bit rising
HOW??? Morgan preducted fall to 7.3K/ton. I disagree, but they have logic. The bigger oversupply, the lower price. Logic can be argued. How to argue BMO? They provided explanation, but an embarassing one.
That supposed to be a time when Li miners would sell at any price, just to pay workers’ salaries and get bankrupt one by one. Per BMO by 2022 oversupply will reach 50% mark (!!!). Yes, each 1/3 of all Li can be put back underground, and nobody would notice. Guess what? Per BMO, in 2023 miners further adding capacity 37K more Li.
Budget cuts, production cuts, conservations, project delay, financing difficulties - words do not exist in BMO's vocabularly? By 2025 we will be walking among hills of unused Li mounting around us. I am glad they stopped at 2025.
I have only one hypothesis, according to BMO, market economy and its rules will be doomed, because Chairman Mao will be resurrected and he will take over the world.