RE:RE:Considering topping upWell said Noob and Gotta. If the weak hands (and stomachs) want to pull out I won't be as kind as some here. I say good riddance. Yes it has taken some intestinal fortitude to ride this out but now is not the time to get weak in the knees. The seeds have been planted, we have nurtured our crop and have weathered the storms. We are about to reap the rewards of the harvest. Only a fool would leave now.
N00bInvesT0R wrote: gottahunch wrote: I'm seeing some posts from people saying they are done. We all have to make our own decisions and good luck to whomever sells with wherever you put your money.
Personally I'm considering a final top up to both APHA and OGI over the next week. Some of the factors affecting my decision making will be:
General market outlook
-Outcome of G20 talks. I hope that someone has gotten through to Orange Man in the US that a deal with China must be done to avert a global recession. If he wants to be re-elected, he needs to make a deal. Hopefully, he is not too arrogant to see this and his advisors have gotten through to him. I do believe a lot of his BS is postering and that a deal will be done. If this happens, the markets obviously will be favourable.
-Seasonal effect. There's an obvious seasonal impact here. Assuming the G20 issue is resolved, a lot of people will be looking for interest picking back up. Last year Weed and APHA started to rally late August and it's my belief we will see the seasonal rally begin sooner than that. BNN reported that there is a lot of M&A going on behind the scenes and I suspect there will be a lot of news coming soon as we lead up the rules changing in Oct. Deals will need to be done soon to get ready for beverages and edibles. Any deals with any LP's will raise tides for all
.
APHA specific items I'm looking for (longs, pls reply and add to the list):
-Obviously we have DD approval pending and rumours have swirled about July 5th. Could we get any other news in addition to this approval, or will we have to wait for the extraction center?
-Extraction center to be approved as a license amendment to DD. I think this is when we have the best shot at an equity deal finally.
-Earnings. This is a wild card but we should see 100 million from CC Pharma plus whatever we sold. 40Baggs had a good post (as usual) crunching some of the numbers. Will we get any news or guidance along with earnings? I'm hoping the worst case is we are a little better than last time with some news or guidance for next q (though I know they are not big on giving guidance).
-High margin vape products will be on sale before the end of the year and the extraction center will be pumping out oils.
I still think the SP will improve with the rest of the sector going into the fall. Any positive news as the sector starts to rally and short covering will help!
I saw someone post about selling APHA and moving to OGI, if I make any moves, it will be to top up both. OGI has stated that they are searching for a beverage partner and like APHA has a vape deal with Pax and Feathers vape.
Both will do well in my opinion. Time to dig deep, have some balls and patience and be rewarded. Just my opinion. GLTA
All the mj sector started to tank Q2 2019, Selling Aphria now would be a big mistake, undervalued + growth not priced in! 255 000 Kgs full capacity and extraction center coming + the whole mj sector beaten opens the door to big players like Altria and Constellations to make a similar equity deal with anyone including Aphria who knows! Aphria current market cap ratio vs revenues = 4 at 115 000 kg, in 2020 we will be at a ratio of 2 with 255 000 kg. Same projection as canopy 1B$ , if you assume a average selling price of 5$/gram, if you do quick maths with 255 000 kg thats equal to 1.275B$. The only risk with Aphria is power of the new management team to execute and assimilate knowledge quickly since they missed everything that happened before 2018 december. With the caliber and experience management team Irwin recruited I believe in them. For external factors like recession, China trade war, I still like the odds, Aphria is a easy double, if you buy now, you are risking 1$ to make 2$ given the possible upside. No risk no reward, if the underdogs pull it, the upset is huge, I'm buying that cinderella story with a happy ending! Other mj companies are good but Aphria is the mj stock you wanna own to make big money ;)
Cheers