GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
Comment by
RalphRalphon Jun 28, 2019 6:30pm
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Post# 29875151
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Naproxen-H2S (ATB-346) vs. Placebo (nothing) = Instant Money
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Naproxen-H2S (ATB-346) vs. Placebo (nothing) = Instant MoneyI agree, and that's why I said WOMAC better than or equal to that of Naproxen is needed. They will be in a much stronger partnership negotiation position with superior WOMAC data. Assuming that they want to partner prior to Phase 3 to help defray the $30M+ trial cost (among other benefits), they would get a much better deal with superior WOMAC & GI data.
I still don't think showing "some" efficacy is good enough in the long run. In the short term, can they be officially successful in this trial without beating Naproxen WOMAC - sure. In the long term, though, an NSAID with GI superiority and inferior pain relieving ability (speaking hypothetically here) is not going to get much traction IMO.
qwerty22 wrote: There is still a very large phase3 to come which will be the centre piece of the rationale for using this drug in the clinic. There is no expectation that the present trials need to answer every single question for either approval or clinical use, the task is to show 'some efficacy', a good safety profile and some further details. Experts within the pharma are going to be able to evaluate the potential value based on the complete end of phase2 data set.
RalphRalph wrote: mstrmnd wrote: Dose-Ranging:
No need to show it's better or even equal to pain reduction with Naproxen
This the quote that stood out to me & I disagree strongly.
Officially, yes, there is no direct comparison with Naproxen here, so technically the study just needs to show benefit vs. placebo. However, in terms of achieving partnership & a desirable valuation, I strongly believe that it needs to at least match Naproxen's WOMAC scores.
Naproxen is an established drug - doctors know it has harmful GI effects & still prescribe it (a lot). To get doctors to change prescription habits, I really think ATB-346 has to be both equally/more effective on inflammation and GI superior (which we know it is). I just don't think it can get a strong place in the prescription market if it's less effective than naproxen. Doctor prescription habits can be hard to change, so Antibe needs to give them a compelling (dual) reason to switch.
Just my opinion.