Aimia Inc T.AIM

RE:RE:I was there,

[Bookends]

It would be an interesting outcome, to say the least... But it would seem difficult now that they've spent so much on share buy backs... They would have had to preserve cash reserves in order to outbid other contenders... 

The best way I would see this working would be in a joint bid for TRZ with Group March.... But it seems quite unlikely that March would agree to go at it 2 ways, and obviously, an hostile bid would be difficult now that Transat's board is working with AC. 

Funny how Transat operating as a stand alone is worth 1$ less to current shareholders according to Transat's board... Obviously, them keeping their job is worth costing current shareholders 1$ less on their holdings... But naturally, everyone knows that AC's bid will have to be sweetened, so it might just be a strategy to get the company for as low as possible. 

CatamaranFund wrote: Thanks 123c, coldtoes, murrams, mattywack and others for  keeping us informed over the long weekend - when we shouldnt have to worry about our investments...

I chose to start my Canadian long weekend vacation travelling  instead of going to Aimia AGM meeting and although i would have liked to have been there - based on what i am hearing - i am just as uninformed now of future prospects as before. 

Something is definately transpiring - whether it is an upcoming all out tug of war between the Board and Mittelman as a major activist shareholder or... more than likely, a deal is underway for some lucky company to aquire  Aimia's proven Loyalty reward programming technical abilities + it's huge tax loss benefits + the recent 500+ Million cash booty from Air Canada for Aeroplan.

Perhaps it is a Joint Venture or out right buy-out by Onex / Westjet (BTW who now have cozy JOINT VENTURE (Sorry , not marijauna) deal approved by Canada between Delta airlines and West Jet  but now awaiting clearance for US Approval. ( See Links)

Baystreet Staff - Friday, June 28, 2019

Competition Bureau OKs WestJet/Delta Hookup

Canada’s federal Competition Bureau in Ottawa has given its approval to a proposed joint venture between WestJet Airlines Ltd. (TSX: WJA) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL)

The Competition Bureau gave its approval in a letter to both airlines, stating that it does not intend to challenge the proposed deal that would expand the two carriers' code sharing agreement — where passengers can purchase seats from one airline on a flight operated by another.

For WestJet, the joint venture would open more of the southern U.S. and western European markets via Delta flights through airports in Atlanta and Barcelona. Despite the Delta tie-up, luring passengers away from Air Canada could be difficult because WestJet isn't part of a major airline alliance such as Air Canada's Star Alliance, SkyTeam or Oneworld.

Air Canada (TSX:AC), the country's biggest carrier, commands nearly a quarter of total capacity on flights between Canada and the United States, while WestJet and Delta will have about one-fifth combined. The proposed joint venture is still subject to regulatory approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation. (A solid Loyalty rewards program could change that quickly)

https://www.baystreet.ca/stockstowatch/5994/Competition-Bureau-OKs-WestJetDelta-Hookup

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/westjet-delta-deal-competition-bureau-clearance-1.5192759

Bottom Line: West Jet / Onex may need Aimia to bring strong Loyalty Rewards Leadership onboard.

Dark Horse option #2
Air Transat's board accepts Air Canada buyout offer
Outbid Air Canada

Jun. 27, 2019 3:32 PM ET |About: Air Canada (ACDVF)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor 

Air Canada (OTCQX:ACDVF +3.5%) says Canadian tour operator Transat (OTC:TRZBF +1.6%) accepted its takeover offer of C$520M (US$396) in cash, even though the price was below what another bidder offered.

Air Canada won Transat's board approval for the C$13/share deal despite a challenge from Montreal real estate developer Group Mach, which offered C$14/share.

The deal, which would leave Canada with just two main carriers offering domestic and international travel, is expected to come under scrutiny by government officials at the federal and provincial levels; it also requires approval by two-thirds of Transat shareholders.

Note: 
1. expected to come under scrutiny by government officials at the federal and provincial levels.

2.requires approval by two-thirds of Transat shareholders.

Everyone is wondering why they accepted Air Canada's initial first bid of $13 & then rejected MACH group of Montreals counter bid of $14. (Air Canada can obviously pay much more, just as they could have paid much more for Aeroplan to Aimia in my opinion - but i am biased)

If Air Canada's bid is rejected by Federal & Provincial levels then Aimia could step in and outbid Air Canada and MACH group by offering more. In fact this notion was stated by The Financial Post

https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/airlines/far-from-a-certainty-air-canadas-520-million-acquisition-of-transat-not-yet-a-done-deal

Note:

 Remember that Air Transat only has 37.73 Million shares on TSX with Market Cap of 508.4M

"...Another bid by Group Mach or even by Onex could surface, as could opposition from shareholders or regulators..."

I would propose "...or a higher bid from AIMIA".

Can you imagine Aimia taking on both Onex/ West Jet and Air Canada by winning a bid for Air Transat and competing with thses giants by having a Best in class Loyalty program + Airplanes + Hotel / real estate partners - what a winning combo!
We all learned from Onex themselves that they were having "back room " talks with West Jet some 6 months before the actual deal.

No wonder they were so indifferent to Aimia plight ( no name(s)).
 Some would say why would Aimia want to own an airline. Well my friends....recent meteoric rises in all major top 3 Canadian undervalued airline stocks have shown that we all should have owned Canada's top airline (stocks) and especially in the last month or two.. (Disclosure - I do)

I would counteract - What does West Jet and Air Canada know about Loyalty programs ?

I believe that the Canadian government needs to closely scrutinize Air Canada's accepted bid and think about the monopolistic tendencies of both Onex/WestJet  and Air Canada giants by allowing a Joint venture between Air Transat & Mach Group (or Aimia if they oubid MACH's $14 counter bid to Air Canada's $13) or a real stick it to the man Joint venture between Air Transat, Amia and MACH Group. That trio would guarantee Canadians with affordable flights, airplanes that are not grounded an opportunity for Air transat to slowly take on both powerful West jet and Air Canada.

Yes something has been going on for some time and it is a sudden realization that  Candian airlines are undervalued and need good loyalty reward programs - preferably internally run and partnered with a major airline alliance such as Air Canada's Star Alliance, SkyTeam or Oneworld.

Have a great vacation & Happy Canada Day Canadians and Happy July 4th to American shareholders!