RE:RE:RE:I made a mistakeUnlucky - you are correct. RBC like all the investment banks have no more visibilty on future price of oil or oil stocks. Their target prices are always qualified with risk factors which make the targets meaningless.
BTE is finished...below $1 is a matter of weeks away. Delisting or consolidation is next and then the drop to pennies. Then the recapitalization happens and shareholders get pennies on the dollar.
What is hard to understand is how bad management is...they could avoid all of the above by doing some or all of the following things :
(1) reduce capex to a fraction of this years and next years anticipated spend. BTE could use the cash flow from existing wells (which have an expect life of 4 years) to pay down a lot of the company debt and buy back half of the outstanding shares. The company would be smaller but stronger. It is better than the orderly bankruptcy which is about to happen.
(2) Sell non-core assets. There is still a market for non-core assets and BTE has plenty of these. Rather than effectively bankrupting the company they should have an agressive approach to off-loading land and production which is non-core.
(3) Sell either the Canadian or US assets. This company is a hybrid monster which no intitutional investor cares about because the debt is too high. A sale of either the CDN or US oeprations would allow thm to pay off all the debt and still have a healthy cash flow situation.
Of course management doesn't give 2 sh*1s about effectively bankrupting the company through a reorganizaton as they have very little of their own money in the company (with the exception of the chairman). They will just issue themselves more options at a lower strike price and keep their multi-million dollar salaries. Fu%& the shareholders mentality...management comes first, second, third on the priority list. Shareholders come last.