RE:RE:RE:Good news and bad newsHi CanadaC
You are wrong about thinking I've not thought this thro... ;-]
If you remember anything about the end of 2018 update, it should be (very important) that the construction programme and plan had faciitated the future requirement for phase 3. There was space allocated in the plant and design was being developed in parallel with phase 2. The only thing that was missing was that they were not purchasing the required plant, so basically we were going to be 'shovel ready' when the money was available for phase 3. That is clear.
Now when NMX came out with their begging bowl in Feb 2019, it was for $375m, which absolutely would have included a contingency (and b4 you say it, yes again). Now when these figures were checked again in April by an independent consultancy. the 375m was deemed to be over the top (by how much we do not know). Again this is fact.
And where are we today, well we have access to $600m, not the 375m, or the 'less than' 375m as was last calculated. There seems to me to be a massive float involved in the figures (double, approx 300 x 2 = 600), and this is at the request of 'expert' mining investors.
Now, back to where I started. If the design is already in progress in parallel the existing plan, and the floor space allocation in the factory is already accommodated for, the only missing factor is the upgrading of the material content for construction i.e. increase either the quantity of the lines or the sizing of the equipment. Now although this would increase production by around 50%, this is not pro rata to the cost of upsizing the material or construction. And in fact there would be savings in doing this as you would save the cost of mobilising and 'de-mobbing'. So you see CanadaC, it is not total WA to fast track phase 3. In my view, it makes perfect sense that also makes a stronger case for any investor..... ;-D
GLTA
CanadaCoin wrote: "....for instance the FS could be really fantastic and include provision to incorporate Phase 3 immediately into the current construction programme. Can you imagine the differnce it would make to the figures (and the SP) if the new target was 57k t of hydroxide per yr." Mick, you truly have not thought this WA [Wishful Analysis] through properly.
The Capital Costs of the Phase 2 operation is now at $1.3 Billion. That cost will support a production run of approx 37k tonnes of Hydroxide/year.
What do you think the increased Capital Costs will be to suport this wishful increased production rate of 57k? And where on earth would this money come from? You truly do like dilution don't you? Wouldn't it make more sense to build up to 57k from positive cashflow....once they are fully commissioned? Rather than find another $800M at $0.25/share??
My fellow readers here, be very careful of this repeated narrative from Mick.
mick1888 wrote: Then again there could be GOOD news matG - for instance the FS could be really fantastic and include provision to incorporate Phase 3 immediately into the current construction programme. Can you imagine the differnce it would make to the figures (and the SP) if the new target was 57k t of hydroxide per yr..... ;-)
Come on some positivity here.... ;-D
GLTA
materialsgirl wrote: My prediction is that there will be no signifiant good news and
no significant bad news over the next year.
So?
The share price will drift between 20 and 30 cents.
What could change that?
A takeover offer at 40 cents could happen
Also. There could be bad news about revised costs
or bad news about grades, recoveries or other geology
reports
Otherwise look fot a year inside 20 and 30 cents
mat