RE:Its got nothing to due with transport/divi/ ng costswhy change?
concentration risk
even if you are the best, if you're a one trick pony, a dry spell would kill you;
yes chasing liquids is costly, but if Peyto can apply their skillset in the wet gas, they may quite possibly do as well as others, if not better, and diversify in the process; even at these prices they're still running 5% ROC and 10% ROE, which is not quite "going bankrupt" yet; covenants still have some wiggle room, generally about 20%, and looks like AECO forward curve is improving, so I think this is a survivor; the market doesn't like the leverage, but that will work in favor if AECO turns the corner here, be it by policy change or TC being more cooperative;
is it going lower? quite possibly; is it going belly up? I don't think so; remember, these are cyclicals, you make money in these not by buing and selling, but by waiting ..