Model Update: BNE Most upside vs other CDN's YGR is a close second.
This is done at $55 WTI / $60 Brent / $1.50 AECO / $3.50 EDM / $11.50 WCS / $1.32 USD.
I have excluded MEG, as technically it is the far and away winner here. But this is largely due to their massive reserves of over 80+ years. Monetizing those into a foreeeable investment horizon is another bet in itself there.
Back to BNE...Some may have seen this before, but the model works as a two part calculation comprising of PDP and PUD values, discounted using an NPV10.
The PDP curves are fitted to the stated stated PDP boe reserves. Thus, the higher PDP RLI companies are going to have lower decline rates and longer tails. BNE is one.
The PDP netbacks are calcualted after royalty, opex and decomm costs, and PV'd per period of occurence.
The PUD+P netback is calculated based on proved, undeveloped plus probable reserves and structured as an annuity over term of 2P RLI. The nominal figure is shown, as well as the NPV10 value.
The combined NPV10 PDP value, and NPV10 PUD+P value (called "NPV Notional Value") is referenced against existing EV, and the residual over / under accrues to the equity under "VS current share price".
This would imply a NPV10 value of $11.23 per share for BNE, one of the highest upsides in the space.
| | NPV 10 PDP Value | EV | % EV | % mk Cap | PUD + Prob. BOE | Unlev. Netback (F&D, maint) | Nominal PUD+P Value | 2P RLI | NPV 10 PUD+P Value |
| OBE | $288,131,470 | $521,147,986 | 55.3% | -92.3% | 51,193,987 | $4.87 | $249,549,575 | 12.56 | $138,653,765 |
| BNE | $373,554,132 | $446,657,310 | 83.6% | 35.5% | 61,638,128 | $12.67 | $780,985,040 | 21.78 | $313,547,694 |
| YGR | $231,673,213 | $320,180,000 | 72.4% | 33.0% | 102,583,522 | $8.83 | $905,952,751 | 25.74 | $321,698,181 |
| CJ | $545,785,553 | $497,907,600 | 109.6% | 120.0% | 35,963,260 | $14.52 | $522,320,636 | 14.80 | $266,847,822 |
| MEG | $4,073,151,027 | $4,951,780,000 | 82.3% | 37.6% | 2,533,825,095 | $19.49 | $49,389,661,062 | 88.18 | $5,600,062,194 |
| CPG | $4,726,394,407 | $6,113,920,000 | 77.3% | 34.0% | 601,265,435 | $9.14 | $5,495,736,325 | 15.85 | $2,701,429,622 |
| BTE | $1,687,512,348 | $3,259,050,000 | 51.8% | -64.5% | 385,537,129 | $6.92 | $2,666,398,946 | 14.87 | $1,358,330,588 |
| WCP | $2,635,018,460 | $2,867,434,000 | 91.9% | 85.2% | 264,325,900 | $9.66 | $2,552,536,036 | 18.96 | $1,125,361,774 |
| ERF | $1,512,619,844 | $2,447,900,000 | 61.8% | 53.8% | 230,266,414 | $3.68 | $846,738,380 | 12.02 | $480,428,009 |
| VET | $1,855,152,412 | $4,900,555,000 | 37.9% | -1.5% | 296,075,168 | $14.44 | $4,275,783,364 | 12.98 | $2,337,704,679 |
| PXT | $1,179,256,987 | $3,008,490,010 | 39.2% | 41.6% | 118,794,230 | $16.11 | $1,914,135,367 | 9.58 | $1,196,339,726 |
| GTE | $600,650,754 | $1,110,470,000 | 54.1% | 27.2% | 100,098,818 | $6.70 | $670,604,291 | 9.26 | $424,532,924 |
| PEY | $1,157,672,572 | $1,684,250,000 | 68.7% | -4.6% | 528,691,281 | $4.63 | $2,445,418,566 | 25.24 | $881,492,540 |
| BIR | $1,006,918,532 | $1,187,979,100 | 84.8% | 67.8% | 801,208,258 | $3.50 | $2,805,933,401 | 35.68 | $760,190,844 |
| POU | $341,581,946 | $1,628,290,000 | 21.0% | -75.7% | 479,534,372 | $1.08 | $517,023,732 | 20.96 | $213,208,808 |
| | NPV 10 Notional Value based on Stated Reserves | VS- Current Share Price |
| OBE | $426,785,235 | -78% |
| BNE | $687,101,825 | 180% |
| YGR | $553,371,394 | 177% |
| CJ | $812,633,375 | 131% |
| MEG | $9,673,213,221 | 335% |
| CPG | $7,427,824,029 | 62% |
| BTE | $3,045,842,935 | -22% |
| WCP | $3,760,380,234 | 57% |
| ERF | $1,993,047,853 | -22% |
| VET | $4,192,857,092 | -24% |
| PXT | $2,375,596,713 | -20% |
| GTE | $1,025,183,678 | -12% |
| PEY | $2,039,165,113 | 71% |
| BIR | $1,767,109,376 | 103% |
| POU | $554,790,754 | -147% |
| | | | 53% |
For some other details, here is another table comparing other metrics.
The EV/ 1P / FC netback column is a coverage ratio metric I developed to measure how the EV per proved boe of reserves, compares to the full cost (profit) that can be generated out of those reserves.
Companies over 100% means that the EV per boe is higher than the profit they can make out of those reserves. Again, BNE scores the best on this metric (ex MEG).
| | Oil % | Realization /boe | Cash COP | Cash Netback | Sustaining Capex | Full Cost netback | EV / Proved | EV/ 1P/ FC Netback | EV/DACF | Mkt. Cap/ FFO | Debt/ FFO | FCF Yield | FCF / EV Yield |
| OBE | 52.5% | $40.62 | $27.02 | $13.60 | $12.21 | $1.38 | 5.66 | 409% | 3.55 | 1.04 | 3.42 | 9.8% | 2.3% |
| BNE | 61.9% | $44.99 | $24.00 | $20.99 | $11.91 | $9.08 | 5.54 | 61% | 3.90 | 1.35 | 3.16 | 32.6% | 9.8% |
| YGR | 36.5% | $33.48 | $13.88 | $19.60 | $12.87 | $6.73 | 4.24 | 63% | 3.01 | 1.38 | 1.96 | 24.9% | 10.3% |
| CJ | 86.2% | $55.50 | $36.76 | $18.75 | $7.19 | $11.55 | 5.95 | 51% | 4.05 | 2.22 | 2.39 | 23.4% | 11.3% |
| MEG | 99.0% | $48.42 | $29.12 | $19.30 | $7.56 | $11.74 | 3.62 | 31% | 5.66 | 2.30 | 5.78 | 26.5% | 7.5% |
| CPG | 79.7% | $56.81 | $28.99 | $27.81 | $21.51 | $6.30 | 9.88 | 157% | 3.20 | 1.21 | 2.32 | 18.7% | 6.4% |
| BTE | 72.4% | $51.98 | $26.81 | $25.18 | $21.41 | $3.77 | 10.38 | 276% | 3.28 | 1.08 | 2.62 | 13.9% | 4.0% |
| WCP | 78.1% | $54.94 | $27.50 | $27.44 | $19.97 | $7.48 | 8.10 | 108% | 3.65 | 2.16 | 1.79 | 13.5% | 7.4% |
| ERF | 50.9% | $44.24 | $24.63 | $19.62 | $16.89 | $2.73 | 8.21 | 301% | 3.35 | 2.90 | 0.61 | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| VET | 53.4% | $51.80 | $21.70 | $30.10 | $10.64 | $19.46 | 16.44 | 85% | 5.20 | 3.47 | 2.20 | 15.5% | 9.5% |
| PXT | 99.0% | $45.88 | $21.48 | $24.40 | $8.28 | $16.11 | 24.74 | 154% | 6.38 | 6.65 | -0.27 | 9.9% | 10.3% |
| GTE | 99.0% | $45.50 | $26.30 | $19.21 | $15.66 | $3.55 | 16.79 | 473% | 3.24 | 2.22 | 1.30 | 10.8% | 6.8% |
| PEY | 0.0% | $16.22 | $7.50 | $8.72 | $5.66 | $3.07 | 2.96 | 97% | 5.15 | 1.81 | 4.26 | 19.4% | 5.8% |
| BIR | 6.1% | $22.63 | $10.84 | $11.79 | $6.40 | $2.35 | 1.47 | 62% | 4.27 | 2.28 | 2.55 | 11.8% | 5.6% |
| POU | 33.2% | $32.87 | $21.09 | $11.78 | $11.90 | -$0.12 | 3.59 | 2946% | 4.15 | 2.06 | 2.51 | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| | 60.5% | $43.06 | $23.17 | $19.88 | $12.67 | $7.01 | 8.51 | 352% | 4.14 | 2.27 | 2.44 | 15.7% | 6.7% |