RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Grimaldi bought on boardSince Greede speculated that EAT may be in profit by next quarter, I haven’t been able to stop thinking about it. Using my napkins and the Q3 numbers, I wanted to outline what gap NH would need to close trying to close revenue v. expenses. The net loss from the last quarter was $9.7 million. They took $2.2 million in inventory losses, which I hope they address immediately. And they took $3 million in one-time non-reoccurring losses.
Net Loss: $9.7
Inventory loss: $2.2
One time/non-reoccurring net $3
(I will guess they will still have about a million in non-reoccurring expenses relating to inventory procedures: $2)
They last reported making $6.2 in revenue or $2.1/mo:
$9.7-$5.2 = $4.5 / 3 = $1.5/mo or 75% of current monthly revenue (assuming no non-reoccurring expenses)
$9.7-$4.2 = $5.5 / 3 = $1.8/mo or 90% of current monthly revenue (assuming 1 million in non-reoccurring expenses)
From last year NH has grown Calyx by
92% per quarter, based on the reported 368% year over year from the Q3, 2019 financials. I believe that kind of growth is easily repeatable, after they are distributing in Southern California but not with the current footprint (unless, I’m underestimating the growth in the California market - which I outline below). But, with any expansion, we can also expect costs to increase at first and decrease as the learn-by-doing and get initial costs under control. And, so, this fairly exercise is a but dubious in its value (as I thought when the Q3 numbers were first released).
Anyways, because I’m already doing this, let’s just do this. If were to just double the revenues and the costs for the new operation in Southern California, the new margin would be $1.1 million/mo higher, which would lead to a revenue v. expenses gap of $0.4 - $0.7 million/mo. But, it’s never that simple and the California market continues to grow massively. This article has the legal market up 23% from last year (
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-08-14/californias-biggest-legal-marijuana-market). And, this article says that basic flower, is where the cannabis market continues to function illegally, whereas vape cartridges sales are increasing in the legal market:
https://mjbizdaily.com/california-cannabis-market-poised-for-growth/. And NH makes Fli branded vape cartridges among other edibles.
The last time we received a report on GT in Nevada it was making about $0.5 million in monthly profit, which would virtually close my mock-up of the revenue v. expenses gap. I’m not sure what GT looks like now. Its best selling brands were sold to Australis but it’s has an amazing cash position and it has the only dispensary in Douglas County. Also, because NH will be running them now, they’ll be doing distribution. And, I don’t doubt, they will be layering their operations with Australis, which could be a powerful partnership.
While I doubt profitability is coming in the next quarter, I’m bullish AND for good reason.
LiquidOctopusV2 wrote: Greede, your comment made me go back to the last quarterlies. I'll admit that I would be surprised if they were profitable by next quarter. There was a net negative write down that won't be repeated in coming quarter but the cash portion of that that definately won't be repeated is <$3 million (as for the inventory issues, we'll have to see whether or not those will be repeated).
It's my assessment that the gap they need to close to acheive profitiablity is too big to be reflected in the coming quarter. They're relying on revenue growth and controlling expenses and there is always a time lag between the company's present state and quarterly reporting.
I'm hesitant to make any firm predictions because of four unknown factors:
1. Impacts of GT aquisition - it was profitable in the past ~$.5 million/mo - but we don't know what it looks like now or when exactly that will start being reflected in the financials.
2. The company predicts that they'll have a their Sacramento
manufacturing facility complete and fully licenced by the end of the year, so the revenue from this won't be reflected in the financials for this year.
3. Ramp up time for Calyx expansion. Are they already operating out of SoCal or not? I can't be sure and when will that expansion start to be reflected in the financials.
4. They may aquire Palo Verde. This will be a large one-time cost. But could be a great long-term move.
I think they're on the right track towards profitability and I'm seeing the execution of a great California strategy. Nutritional High has grown Calyx to the point that it's now larger than Continuum was September of last year, which says something. And, even though I can't measure it just yet, I beleive Calyx is the fastest growing cannabis distribution company in California.
I'm seeing everything I need to.
Greede wrote: Check inbox.
By the way, does anyone think that EAT could surprise with profitability in the next financials, if not by year end?
It seems very possible to me. Long-suffering shareholders would be massively rewarded on that kind of news. Something to be hopeful for, right?
LiquidOctopusV2 wrote: Executives join companies for 2 basic reasons: 1) they need a job, 2) they believe in the business and its potential. Grimaldi, isn't hurting for a job these days and executives don't join companies they believe are going to die. What use is stock option for a dead company?
We are bleeding. But, realisitically, you need to look at a CSE cannabis company stock index. This is a hard time in the whole sector. Nutritional High, as I've mentioned, actually gave up less in the recent downturn because it was already down. Shareholders have good reasons to be upset, it sucks these days. But, I've never accepted the argument that NH's executives are predators and I don't give in to easy talking points.
letsgetonthis wrote: He’s joining the ride to suck More bonuses I think.. bleed shareholders bleed !! Sad that they have given back 4 years of gains .. not to many weed companies out there that have done that .. companies like ATT did and look at what happened to them !!maybe Jim bailed so he didn’t have that on his resume??