The Oversupply BeaconI have been absent from this board for some time and sitting on the sidelines during the current "back to reality" haircut that the whole sector is experiencing. There are just too many players out there folks and not enough users.
My research is that Canada is quickly approaching over supply, has a reputation for low grade bud, and has a robust black market. Don't get the giggles over the same group of people lining up every week outside the dispensaries.
South of the border in Oregon, oversupply is a vast understatement. The state’s authorities estimate that demand in the adult use cannabis space is running at just 50% of the supply from legal producers. That is a staggering amount of cannabis — enough to last until mid-2025 without the state having to grow one more plant.
In Washington, licensed growers are now using half or less of their licensed canopy. They just stopped growing.
And I could on and on about oversupply data that is a beacon for the future of cannabis stocks.
The market has spoken and the message is clear. What the market is saying to me is the party is over for many (but not all!) cannabis companies and profits, if anybody can produce them, are going to be slim.
I must admit, that for a time the other day, I thought i would jump in for a trade... but my gut pulled me back. The dreaded "dead cat bounce".
For me, the only catalyst I see is consolidation. I don't see infused drinks killing wine and beer, and I don't see CDB skin creams and all the medical derivatives taking up all the weed oversupply.
I wish all you guys that are long IAN, the best of luck. There are many keen followers on this board and the info sharing has been great.
It's my time to move on.