SPCEO1 wrote: I wish I could add some valuable insight into the weaknesses of the Bloomberg data collection but I really don't have any. All I can say is that Bloomberg itself is reporting a lot of new patients in recent months but total sales have trended a bit lower since the big June result. So, perhaps it is what you have suggested, but I don't have a high degree of confidence in that explantion. We do know that Bloomberg undercounted sales in the last two quarters by 14% or so in the first quarter and 4% or so in the second quarter. Changes in inventories at the pharmacy level is at least part of the explanation for these differences. Additionally, I am sure there are a small amount of Trogarzo sales outside the US for MDR patients who are in very bad shape that are captured in the company's official numbers but not in the Bloomberg numbers. Maybe there are some timing differences where pharmacies stocked up on Trogarzo at the end of June knowing they were going to be on vacation during the July 4th holiday and would not be ordering that week. So that may have artificially boosted June's sales at the expense of July. But it does not do much to explain Bloomberg's August Trogarzo sales also trending lower.
There must be some explanation. Perhaps we will see a big positive difference in actual reported Trogarzo sales (+44% in actual terms versus +30% or so according to Bloomberg) versus Bloomberg's estimates again for Q3 like was the case in Q1.
I really don't think the chances are very high that patients are suddenly ceasing Trogarzo treatment. In speaking with the company about why they are optimistic about reaching the long term sales goals they have mentioned for Trogarzo, they point to the fact that Trogarzo is working and helping lower the patient's viral load, something they think wille ncourage doctors to use it more frequently. There would be no reason for an MDR patient to stop taking the drug if it is working, in fact that might be a suicidal decision.
On another note, I worked for Templeton in Fort Lauderdale during the 1990's and a friend of mine there just reported seeing a Trogarzo ad at a bus stop in downtown Fort Lauderdale.' So the direct to consumer advertising program has apparently expanded from the local newspapers targeting the homosexual community (gays apparenlty make up about 35% of Fort Lauderdale's population) to bus stops! I am not sure if that is a sign that it is working so they are expanding its use or if they are still searching for something that will work. But they are apparently still working at it.
qwerty22 wrote: ".... In fact, the Bloomberg numbers for August don’t really add up in light of the new patients since the company has been saying the retention rate of patients is very high. If you are retaining older patients and adding newer ones, sales have to be increasing each month. That is also what the Taimed’s monthly sales numbers suggest ....."
It would be really great to nail down the cause of this just to remove some uncertainty. It has me doubting the retention rates from the company. If patients arent actually coming off the drug then there must be a change occuring in how patients access their prescription which makes them lost to the Bloomberg system. A quick search suggests that some of the bigger hiv medical centers offer pharmacy services. Is it possible that once into an injection routine that the patient might switch how they access the prescriptions (say through the injecting center directly) and this stops being registered with Bloomberg? I have a vague memory that Bloomberg struggles with prescriptions out of hospitals. Maybe theratech could point to this type of process, or another, occuring that would lose the patient in the Bloomberg system?
Thanks for continuing to update these numbers though, still an important weekly read for me.