Ivan, Etc.I know I am long-winded. Feel free to read or not... your time is your time... I sometimes get into rambles.
Checked that interview.
One of the takeaways I got was that it seems like that 1M sq ft greenhouse is their sweet spot of size and capacity that they are comfortable with. They want to get it running, producing and efficient... and ensure high and consistent quality. From this, I glean, that expansion is not in the cards for the foreseeable future.
This seems reasonable, but it is my take only. I don’t want to kaibosh hopes of what may happen down the road if Eve is outrageously successful and more product is needed (eg setting up more greenhouse), but just thought it prudent to interject what I interpret from the interview, to avoid getting overzealous with expectations around future expansion.
We we can probably guess if expansion will be needed down the road after around 2-3 years: based on Eve’s performance over the next 2-3 years... based on how their 2.0 products fare... based on the stability of their provincial and German contracts (in terms of renewal)... and based on new contracts and opportunities we aren’t aware of (or haven’t been dreamed of) yet.
So, just spilling my thoughts, that expansion is probably best left for future discussion when it becomes more tangible... that it is something that is actually under consideration by our company.
50k kgs+ is pretty monstrous, and if it can all be sold (at reasonable profit, and consistently, including beyond year 2 & 3)...our current market cap will dull in comparison to what it can become (and it will shine). But therein lies the rub, Eve must execute and continue to execute well for this to break the shackles of share price mediocrity.
Speaking of share price, MMCAP will also eventually disappear; they were one of the many necessary evils of the initialization of this industry and we long shareholders sometimes feel like we are holding a bag because of it. Oversupply will be a burden until their involvement is beaten out of the daily trading volume... and shorting will also be a burden while shorters (including MMCAP) can short with relative confidence because MMCAP can oversupply the price back dow to that profitable buy-back point. PS, they have loads more warrants out there. BUT, don’t let the boards fool you completely... of course prices will be depressed because of MMCAP, and the rise / fall (and correlary increase / decrease of shorts) will happen for a while. But if this depression doesn’t break the fundamentals, then the long term remains bright, and you simply need to hold your shares until they give you the returns you are waiting for (or buy in at the dips / lows). That is your call. Just be conscious and leery of anyone one trying to fool you into thinking that some swings in price (that you should expect and forecast into your investment strategy) are because the company fundamentals in the long run are the reason.
All that being said, I think Eve should be more careful with us, it’s shareholders, when pumping us up with info. Sometimes the words we receive are too optimistic (or even unrealistic). Eg Melinda has left us with the impression that OCS was (not verbatim) “imminent” for quite some time now... only to be left with a void of information and a missing sales channel still unfulfilled (also part of the reason that despite profit, revenue was below expectation in the most recent quarter). Misses like this can directly hit the share price and our investments... it can also dwindle confidence if it happens too often (or the impact is substantial). Sure, OCS is probably going to happen soon, but it has been happening soon for almost a year. PS... BC will probably happen eventually too, but is probably not “imminent” even if that is the impression we are all left with... the black market is apparently a big force out there, and has resulted in a much slower and lower rollout than anticipated, which is making this a hard channel to get into / penetrate (FYI I spoke directly with Landon on this topic this week).
Remember, we are Eve... it is the niche brand dedicated to quality women’s products, with opportunity to fill anywhere else under Natural MedCo (eg pure medical focus), founded by a woman who really knows and is hands-on in terms of agriculture (greenhouse growing). They have a mostly stellar management team (though there is some sketchiness, such as Ravi, and none of us liked that insider trade out of the blue even if it may be something or nothing). This company’s experience and passion for agriculture, woman-focus, and medical should not be underestimated or discounted.
And remember, the business model / strategy is not to “take over the world” based on volume (Canopy, Aurora, etc.)... Eve knows who she is and should remain true to herself. That is what I bought into, it should also be what you bought into if you are holding.
One day down the road, I expect the share price to reflect the true value of this (what I believe to be) pretty awesome company.
Lets go Eve... keep delivering... I am starting to taste future succes.
Peace. Long Eve y’all!