RE:RE:RE:Canadian LP'sYou might want to do some homework as to how Market Caps are determined and how fluid they are depending on the sector and nature of buisness.
There are old standards that 16 times revenue is a common equation for determination of Market Cap. (EBITDA or Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation)
For Comparison, Have a look at WEED. Revenue of $330 Million and a Market Cap of 12.6 Billion. Factor of Rev/MC = 26.19
Based on your TNY example of 15 Million Units * $9 a bottle = $135 Million Revenue.
If we use the Factor of WEED then $135 Million * 26.19 = 3.5 Billion valuation for TNY.
Our PPS should be = $3.5 Billion/103 Million shares = $33.98 per share
Obviously this is rediculously high, but your scenario is rediculously low. You may want to add in projected revenues from Co-packs. Projected in time to be 10 * Revenue of TNY sales. Add in Nevada, Canada, New York etc etc.
In conclusion, we aren't worth $33.98 a share, but we sure aren't worth our rediculously low $.55.The above methodology was only looking at Revenues. There are many other factors needed to determing MC. Expenses and Losses are a huge concern ie. WEED.
djgt wrote: It’s unfortunate that you feel that I throw jabs at mgmt. Quite the contrary, for a start-up they’ve done a great job navigating a gong-show in Cali. I’m sure they’ll do similarly well in Canada’s equally embarrassing roll-out. If I am putting fear in others then perhaps it’s the voice of reason. There is a big difference between excitement and exuberance. Seeing lots of exuberance. I’m just trying to gauge where everyone’s head is at and perhaps learn things I may have missed from likeminded.
Current FACTS (not wishes) if share price hits all time high with Canadian LP announcement as many here feel would be justified.
$2.00 per share = approx $220 million market cap
$220,000,000 / $9 average wholesale per bottle = 24,500,000 units
Our current build out (I’ll even give you the license) is 15,000,000 units.
9,000,000 units short.
That production number - to hit $2.00/share - is 160% of our current build capacity. What’s more, our current run rate is approx 4% of capacity. In order to hit 24,500,000 units we would need 4,100% growth! That’s a very big target. It’s an achievable target too but it will take a while and 2 Canadian LP’s will help but aren’t the instant unit growth that many think.
This isnt fear-mongering. These are facts. I’m in know rush. It took Cott many years. It may take Tinley several more too. I’m really comfortable with that. As I said, just curious what I might be missing as several members feel there is a substantial re-rating around the corner.
That is all.