RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Weekly trend reversal comingI was refering to the black market that continues after prohibition RG, which was still going on in the 50's and 60's. I have a little ways to go to hit 86 but it is definately in my plans but whether it is in the cards or not is the question?
I don't see FIRE taking years to show substantial gains, as gains are directly tied to sales/revenue and we are just starting to see those gains now. Based on the guidance from Dhaliwal, which is what was estimated and more, we will see sustainable SP gains Q over Q for sometime to come....and I will be around for some time to enjoy it full time and the grandkids will do alright as well. JMHO...Opt
RealistGhost21 wrote: I have an observation Op,
You said you were still a kid at the end of the alcohol prohibition. May I ask witch one?
The american one that ended in 1933 (from 1920-1933) or the canadian one that ended in 1920 (from 1918-1920)?
Best case scenario I would say the american one that ended in 1933, so if you were still a kid lets say 4 years old that make you approx 86 years old!!!
Congratulation honestly...but may I ask also why you have invested in Supreme ... knowing it is long term strategy ?
OptGreen wrote: I was not aware of this level/ avenue of production watch. I have been whining about these black market on-line sites that continue to openly sell uninspected product with impunity....illegal activities are a law enforcement responsibility and need to be dealt with as such. My understanding was that they were allowing the black market to continue to a degree that would not create a vacuum while the legal LPs got up and running.
I was a kid but remember the end of the cleaning up of the alcohol prohabition and the introduction of the 'government stuff' and it was war on all the stills in the area, it didn't take long before there were very few brewing and they were very quiet about it...was expecting to see the same here.
I have sent mails to Surpreme and HC for some clarity in this matter because it is complete bullshite from every angle and will definately have a serious negative impact the legal LPs...I had a script for 3yrs but was not aware that they would let things degrade before they complete the roll out? The same thing with so called 'gun control', penalize the law abiding and support/promote the criminal element.
Much appreciated watch, JMHO....Opt
watchmeplz wrote: Your understanding is a recreational only view which is 4 plants allowance to any Canadian. There is a whole other class that has been operating under medicinal laws growing LEGALLY selling to the black market which has not and can not be enforced due to the litigated position the federal government was put in since 2001. There’s 30,000+ licenses issued and the reason why the market is fully saturated already and the reason you haven’t seen a HUGE spike in consumers and been very slow roll for the cannabis companies.
Here get one yourself:
https://www.cannabisgrowingcanada.com/ John Conroy, is going back to federal court soon to fight for black market dispensaries to exist through supply from the acmpr personal production licenses and if he’s successful which he should be from previous cases you’ll be seeing nothing but hoop dreams from these companies. Be wary and warned!
OptGreen wrote: I understood the limit was 5plants (4indoors+ 1outdoors) per household watch, which is easily said but most will be lucky to grow anything that they will want to smoke. Agreed, potentially a significant problem but is a law enforcement issue and they need to get up to speed in enforcing all of the illegal cannabis sales and production.
Fowler has said that ~80% of the cannabis consumption in Canada is consumed by a small percentage, 20% if memory serves? These heaveir consumers will not be coming to the legal retailer at the current price levels, not to mention the majority of the product shelved to date is far cry from premium product...but more will be picking up the high quality product off the shelf as pricing becomes more reasonable.
Dhaliwal has been setting up a solid network for CBD oil already with the Supreme Heights platform in the UK, distribution assets in Malta and with the acquisition of BlissCo and Truverra assets they have a good start on sales to the European markets...along with additional supply from the 10% position in Medigrow/ Lesotho. This is just the CBD oils today, they will be ready with the THC oil and dried herb when the legalization of these products is enacted.
When you do your DD on this company and sample the product you will be adding to your position, JMHO....Opt
watchmeplz wrote: Your right, Ontario is a huge percentage of the overall market, the largest in fact.
Your wrong though about acmpr personal production licenses. Those combined with older grandfathered MMAR licenses means there is 30,000+ other competitors right now that don’t have the same stipulations as the LPs. All you need is a doctors note and your good for 500+ plants x 4 licenses at 1 address = 2000+ plants at a single location. This completely alters your market and the prices LPs can sell at let alone having inferior quality due to selling older staler product that was machine trimmed or cured incorrectly due to Canada’s requirements.
Europe is a whole other beast where I think a lot of the LPs were considering a saving grace, however, when you dig deeper you’ll find those facilities need European GMP certification which is costly and hard to acquire let alone their wholesale cost not being far off Canadian pricing. I’m sure also the Europeans won’t be happy with old stale product too due to Canada’s regulations and timeline it takes to get there.
Well, I wish you guys the best, hopefully I shed two cents on some innocent people.
OptGreen wrote: You are not completely wet here watch, as the black market needs to be cleaned up and the roll out of retail needs to get up to speed and in Ont as md mentioned which is a large portion of the market.
The acmpr licensing is a non issue as long as the government does their job in screening applicants and holding everyone to the same standard...the value in the opportunity for access to the market through the med side passed when rec was legalized.
The charting of this sector is a ways from any material accuracy/ value is still a ways away as there is little to no base in the sector to date, much like .com. The real market and those that will be successful producers in it are far from established...with the exception of Supreme, but only if they meet and/or Dhaliwal's guidance.
Fowler/team have been focussed on quality from the jump, partnering with Dinafem et al and started building a facility specifically designed for cannabis...invested in oils with Medigrow, one of the first in maybe the best cannabis production area on the planet and with the focus on entry into the new and huge potenial market of Europe.
There is going to be plenty of blood in the streets to come for many in the sector and the Linton firing is a prime example of that...FIRE is in a space of it's own and is just starting to execute their ever improving business plan. Quality first and foremost is the key and it is very difficult to achieve consistantly at scale. Over the next few quarters you will see how success in this sector can be realized and quantified on fundamentals like any other market. Have a look at the impact from Jack Haze roll out and as the in-house packaging gets up to speed and other strains like KK are added to the menu.
There is another level of quality coming 12-16mos out that will bring another established clientele to the retail shelves....so far FIRE is the only real player in the space that will be here years from now without major changes to their product and how it is produced, not too mention chartable, JMHO....Opt
watchmeplz wrote: Begun? Your lost, if you think this market hasn’t been active for years prior to legalization, and not just talking about extreme black market hiding out in the hills growing. I would consider 2001 the beginning of the current landscape, when all someone needed was a doctors note to produce, the government didn’t want this, they got litigated into the position their in. Also, if you read up on John Conroy, he’s taking the federal government back to court to allow medical licenses to produce and supply the current black market dispensaries permanently. We’re currently in the trickle phase in the industry as these companies try to find ways not to do another dilutive financing and stretch for revenue hoping there’s brighter days on the horizon.
maritimedreamer wrote: the industry is far form its heights...... this has only just begun..... legalization only happened a year ago..... as acceptance increases, as ON get off their fat Ford rear end (and BC), and as US move to legaliation and well the rest of the world..... do you not see more growht to come?