I Like Canopy Long Term, Not So Much Short TermCanopy (and pot stocks in general) have been controlled by the shorts and automated trading (algos) for several months now. I don't really see anything significant changing as Oct. 17 is built in and means nothing until it translates to revenue which will start Dec. 17, but won't really start showing up until January 2020 or Q4. The SAFE Act has had a good start, but it needs the Senate, which may be challenging. The gamechanger will be the STATES Act which is anybody's guess when it may pass (again through Congress and then Senate).
The one major thing I see that might give Canopy a good bump is the Q2 numbers out around Nov. 15. If they can show good revenue numbers north of $100 million (say $110 million) I think it may start another rally. I think they can, given the number of CannTrust customers they absorbed and the fact that pot sales are up across the country.
Short term, I can see Canopy going to mid $20's or even low $20's (especially if there is a major market correction which is going to happen). These pot stocks are highly speculative and risky, most of the big gains have been made when it flew to $76. I think we are at the point now where the market wants to see revenue and a path to profitability (show me stage). This reminds me of the dotcom bubble (which I lost a lot of money) and where only the good companies survived, but suffered a lot during that time.
I sold more recently and am down to 25% ownership as a hedge in case something out of the blue happens and it goes up. I will be building up my position again when it gets to the $20's but doing it very slowing and carefully given the market and economic conditions at the time. I do like this company long term, just not willing to stay invested and lose money short term. I've learned my lessons the hard way with the dotcom bubble and the 2008 financial crisis.