RE:Bullish API
You could tell that oil traders knew ahead of time today. Oil plunged like the S&P then stopped going down around 12 pm ET, then even came back up before the close while stocks kept heading down.
S&P ended down 1.2% and WTI down 1.3%. On a day like today with recession fears mounting, oil would normally have come down the usual 3-4%.
This data is surprising as we enter the shoulder season, refineries going on maintenance and reduced consumption. Maybe that exports were really strong to compensate for Saudi Arabia being 50% offline for a couple of days.
I am also looking forward, as usual, to EIA's weekly production estimate. They have been obviously wrong for July with 11.8 million bls/d actual vs around 12.2 million estimated. The size of "adjustment" was also incredible last week at 962,000 bls/d. That is an enormous amout of missing barrels to make their balance sheet... balance!
Anyway, I am hoping that we have suffered enough here with all these Canadian oil stocks. To my knowledge they have now all closed the gap made on September 16 and we have been going down ever since. No geopolitical risk premium whatsoever and now all recession risk...
A company like CJ at $26,000 per flowing, very low multiples of free cash flow and of everything else should be low enough considering that they are doing all the right moves.
It is understandable that someone has created algos that automatically sells cyclicals such as oil stocks whenever economic data comes out weak. Howevever, at what level does it stop making sense? I think that we are long past that point in Canadian energy.