RE:RE:JackieCWonderful stuff FlipFlop, but just where does it fit in the BUSINESS of RE?
As in cost effectively producing product in proportion to customer demand in sufficient volume to be profitable?
Lynas LAMP is far from "struggling" to produce HRE, it's been pushing out a clean, mixed SEG/HRE 98% TREO for six years, probably ~1000t per month at current rates, which would contain sufficient Dy & Tb to pretty much meet current ROW demand.
LAMP was never designed to separate HRE but that mixed carbonate has a CoP of just ~$10kg, with the total business of Lynas fully realised on the NdPr stream, HRE is simply a by-product.
Now they plan to expand to HRE separation, while there is no data on the method of process available we can take a broad overview of the potential business, assume a relatively low CapEx given initial volumes say 10ktpa at a brownfield with existing finishing & presumably lab assets. Could guess $20/30M but then there is potential funding available.
Basically input costs would be $10M for revenues $30M, take a stab at CoP for separation & finishing say $10M, leaving a gross of $10M to be split between the two JV partners. In reality Lynas will take profit on the SEG/HRE stream from LAMP but I'll keep it very simple here.
Blueline JV with 50tpa Dy & 20t Tb can effectively meet current ROW demand, basically Jap mag makers, if that demand increases they simply add stockpiled xenotime from Mt Weld with enhanced Dy & Tb grades, those grades are unknown but potentially quite exceptional, Lynas doesn't see the need to boast these things until they convert them to cash.
When you get done playing with your fantasy chemistry set you might get around to figuring just how that translates into any sort of vaguely viable business, particularly as Lynas can pretty much meet the great majority of the ROW commercial mkts, effectively magnet metals with probably a tiny stream to phosphors AND that business is complete up to separation and beyond with established customer base.
Exactly WHERE is Ucore going to compete to build a viable business, remembering Jack's fabled HRE mkt ROW is probably not much more than $12.5M Dy + $9M Tb so $30M is probably generous given at least some Chinese competituon will remain?
Remembering Blueline JV input costs $10M for $30M revenues ~80% from Jap mag makers, how exactly does Ucore finance and build a viable business that has any chance to compete, basically from a glossy PDF?
Or if you prefer let's just imagine Lynas decides the strategic exercise in HRE just isn't worth it, certainly isn't doing the JV for near term profits, and Ucore can compete with just China (remember THEY set the prices) for the $30M ROW revenues what sort of gross annual return do you think Ucore could generate?
You wouldn't have a clue.