Where It's At!The nickel/cobalt price improvement is great and bodes well for Moa cash flow/dividends. Remember however that they warned that 3rd Q receivable collection would be weaker especially given the situation in Cuba. I don't expect a significant change in their immediate cash position. Of course continuing higher nickel/cobalt prices will make a difference and you will remember that they talked about pushing for an enhanced overdue receivables payback deal (adjusting their current deal) by lowering the dividend threshold in 2020, etc.
I continue to expect a negotiation with bondholders to extend the term of their maturity. I would expect that to take place at the end of this year or early next year. Such an extension will lead to higher bond prices - and should also lead to relief and higher equity prices with that particular "risk" out of the way. That outcome should not be a dilutive event for shareholders.
I also expect them to negotiate something with the Ambatovy Partners debt currently due in 2023 as noteholders wouldn't like to be extended and have the Ambatovy maturity ahead of them.
I think the required equipment for the completion of Block 10 should be on site by next week and that they will probably have results in November. I'm sure they will provide an update with the third Q results call. While I know that certain shareholders are excited about the potential redevelopment of their oil business, remember it won't generate free cash flow for years as cash generated will be recirculated in to incremental wells.
IMO, for now this is a nickel/cobalt story.