RE:So - What will be the Perceived Value of TLT in Six Months
tonyynot wrote
Within less than six months, at least two Phase II patients will have passed the 180 day mark of their first TLD-1433 treatment. It is probable that approximately ten additional patients will have been qualified and have received their first of two scheduled Anti Cancer Treatments (ACT).
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Of course, at this time we have no way of knowing what the results will be or what announcements will be history as of April 12, 2020. But if you believe, as I do, that the Theralase treatment for qualified Phase II patients will be near 100% successful - then we will have demonstrated at lease two for two CR results at the 180 day mark, and likely positive commentary on a few additional patients when they received their second dose for their Phase II treatment.
Assuming the above, then by this time Theralase should be viewed as having a worth of at least 1.5 billion dollars. When we do the math (assuming approximately 210 million shares issued and outstanding) then we arrive at a share price of $7.14.
Perhaps my positive assumptions have only a 75% probability of being correct. So, cut the expectation of the TLT share price to be only $5.00 by mid April 2020. On the other hand, there is a fair chance that TLT will have announced a partnership agreement with a large bio firm to advance the Theralase Photo Dynamic Compound and associated drug formulation intended for another cancer (perhaps gliobastoma). If so, share price should be between 9 and 10 dollars, IMHO.
Cheers, Tonyynot.
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Your math is good although a might conservative all points are excellent I tend to go for the 3 month as a strong mover again agreeing by then a handful of patients will have also been treated. Stock should move up with the 3 month data and a strong surge at 6 months as said a $5 - $7 you used did ignore a share price multiple usually awarded high potential stocks especially one that not only could knock cancer on its knees in this trial but hugh potential of replicating the same results in the other 16 or 17 indications. Question would've would it only get a 5 multiple or an average multiple of I think its 17 but as stockmarkets have seen such as beyond meat would this stock get a incredable multiple of 30 or 40 that might even be too conservative too!