RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Simple question from a noobHello again Cal,
I've been in the stock market ever since the end of the 90s, but took a significant break after losing my shirt during the .com crash. What can I say? I was young, naive and poorly adviced.
I only returned in 2014-2015 and I've been concentrating on Merger/Arbs more seriously since the end of 2015... By now, I've played a bunch of these situations... Probably over 30. I'm not gonna pretend to be a guru or anything, but generally, I've done pretty well with this strategy.
Wish I had the cleverness to get back in 2009 like you!! I'm personally using the merger/arb strategy as a way to not be invested for the next big downturn... I'm hoping to be able to catch good and valuable dividend bluechips at a good discount on the way down... But I'm still waiting for this crash hahahaha...
No, I've definitely not own this for a while... I've only purchased in the last week as I became increasingly confident the deal would pass the shareholder vote.
I can respect that you would fix yourself a stop loss on this... But if you sell for 4$ a share, that's exactly the cash portion you would get from Pala, which would imply that you really believed you wouldn't receive that 4$ payment from them. Personally, I think it's pretty likely at this point that you will get your 4$, unless something changes that.
If all things remains the same, and the market takes it down to 4$... I would certainly buy a truck load just to have free shares of Nickel 28. That would be a no brainer to me.
I've bought 1 position at 4.26$ (pre-vote) and 1 more at 4.5$ (post-vote)... I'll be sitting this one out for the next week or two to see how the market reacts. If they could give more clear guidance as to when they anticipate that Pala will pay the shareholders, that would be very helpful. I'm hoping the release after the 16th court date will give more transparency on this.
But, I think that IF it was suppose to reach much higher prices than 4.5$, it would have on Friday afternoon... I don't think it'll spike to over 5 dollars this week or anything like that... But we'll have to see... If it drops in the next few weeks, I'll probably accumulate more... At 4.2$ to 4.3$ and again at 4 to 4.15$, if it goes down to that.
I'll say that ultimately, Silverknight is right however... You shouldn't base your decisions on what I say... AT ALL... you should dig into the situation for yourself and make up your own mind... I could be wrong and clueless or I could be manipulating you into buying as I sell, for all you know.
Personally, I've learned to make friends with some good and trustworthy investors over the years... People to bounce ideas off of and receive ideas from... So, I do understand that other people could be valuable assets when investing.
Calbucin wrote: Hello Bookends,
Thanks, that seemed like plausible scenarios. You seem like you know the stockmarket well. Have you been doing this for a while? Been there since 2009 (a lucky year to enter the market).
To me it seems that if the stockprice don't go up, it's that like you say either the market does not find it plausible or possible or risky. For sure this is not a sure thing, otherwise investors with real knowledge (not technical analysis trader like me) would have paid a lot more than 4,5$ after the friday news release. Also, market manipulation like you say could take place, but hey how does that work I have no clues. To me it seems that this could be feasible on small stocks, but this one seem kinda big for that.
I guess we'll see during the following days or weeks. My seel price will be 10% lower, so around 4 $. Hope it will stay over that... Have you own the stock for a while?
Best Regards,