SPCEO1 wrote: You may ahve noticed there are a lot of people in a bad mood onhtis board right now. That always happens when the share price is getting beat up, as you would expect. In the stock market, when there is a big sale going on with merchandise selling at deep discounts, the customers run screaming out the door rather than the opposite. It has always been the case and always will be (until the computers completely take over!).
I think many of the sellers are selling because the stock is going down and they likely don't know much more than that. To the extent there are potentially large buyers waiting in the wings, they are likely waiting to hear what is said at the R&D day. Why make a big commitment to TH before the R&D day when the outstanding questions that have been raised by the great posters on this board are still outstanding? Also, at the moment, TH's stock has almost no one telling anyone to buy it - it lacks sponsorship.
By the way, the quarter was only weak regarding Trogarzo sales. Every other aspect of the quarter was better than expected, including the bottom line.
Going back to my catalysts, 4 have taken place so far, all of them low impact catalysts. First the final European approval was attained - good news. Second, the company listed on NASDAQ - good news to me and all other US-based shareholders. Third, the Grinspoon report was published in a leading journal and verified the good results we already knew and made a prettys trong call for label expansion - good news. Fourth, the quarterly report had shckingly weak Trogarzo sales - defintely bad news - but was good in every other respect.
The fifth catalyst - Egrif ta SV launch, has been postponed until sometime before the end of November. It also was one I judged to be a low impact catalyst.
The sixth catalyst is the R&D day - this should be a high impact catalyst. If they are able to do a good job of convincing people that label expansion and the proposed phase III trial are legitimate possibilities, then they will find buyers for the stock since right now you are getting those things for free when you buy TH.
The other high impact catalysts are US analysts writing favorable reports on TH, the FDA giving its blessing to label expansion and/or phase III and a share offering on the cak of a successful phase III outcome with the FDA. It is hard to say when or if the US analysts will come to the fore with their reports but we do know they have been hunting around and the shelf offering certainly has their attention. That is like catnip to the broker "cats" - they find it hard to resist.
Now, if the R&D day turns out to be a dud, then the prospects for the other high impact catalysts will decline in the average investor's eyes. It will turn out to be a dud if the company does not address the key questions about the phase III issues and label expansion. And there is a good chance, based on management's historical record on things like this and the company's likely unwillingness to reveal anything about the filings with the FDA, that attendees will leave unsatisfied and wondering why they even bothered to schedule it if they did not plan to talk about the most important things on investors minds. I would not be surprised if the company will not send their file for the phase III and label expansion to the FDA until shortly after the R&D day so they can say they are not done yet and can't comment on it at the R&D day. That would be a big mistake.
Also, one has to wonder why they are even talking about cancer right now. No investor is going to put any value on it since it is still pre-clinical. The fact that they have made this an R&D day instead of and Investor day focused on HIV NASH phase III and label expansion may be telling us something.
bigd1986 wrote: since the US listing the volume has picked up but all to the wrong side. i understand that after the weak quarter and less than great call some downward pressure would make sense but i cant understand who or why would sell at these levels? anyone selling is taking a pretty big loss (unless they have very very old shares). frustration is understandable but this selling pressure doesnt make sense to me.