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Aphria Inc. APHA

Aphria, which is headquartered in Ontario, produces and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis. The company operates through retail and wholesale channels in Canada and internationally. Aphria is a main distributor of medical cannabis to Germany and has operations in over 10 countries outside of Canada. However, it does not have exposure to the U.S. CBD or THC markets due to the constraints of federal prohibition. It has some U.S. exposure through the acquisition of SweetWater, a craft brewer


NDAQ:APHA - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Comment by INVSTIGAT0Ron Oct 19, 2019 11:02am
129 Views
Post# 30247141

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Shorter watch out!!!

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Shorter watch out!!!
nderror wrote:
Savage97 wrote: I think your missing that just Ontario has 14 million people compared to 5.5 million in Colorado.


the states surrounding colorado added alot of tourist destination monies also.



I mentioned that Ontario has 14 million, which is why we need minimum 500 stores here, when comparing to Colorado. Another reference point would be California. They have a population of 40 million (and a plethora of tourists) but they also have a dispensary shortage. They're currently sitting around 500 stores as well, but it should be closer to 1500-2000.

I visited California in the spring and checked out a MedMen for the first time. Way better selection than here, better quality and a huge varitey of infused products (beverages and edibles) all with beautiful packaging. People standing at the store front to answer and questions and an overall great experience. The problem there is similar to Canada. Califonia is only on track to bring in 3.1 billion from legal sales this year. In comparison, the illicit market brought in about 8.7 billion last year in Cali and they've been legal since January 2018. 

Another problem I found was beverages. Bruce tricked everyone, including Constellation Brands, that beverages would just explode and compete strongly with Alchohol. This simply has not happened in California despite having a fridge filled with beverage products in most California dispensaries. Talking to the workers at MedMen they said that beverages were not really that popular. Chocolates/candies are the biggest sellers. The only true way that beverages have a chance of becoming huge is if laws change and restaurants are allowed to sell them along-side wine and beer. This kind of change is likely very far off in Canada, based on how slow we are so far. That's part of the reason why I feel confident in Aphria, who seems to be going down the medicinal/topical/wellness product side of things and didn't immediately get in bed with a beverage company.  

All we can really do here is wait out the grind against government regulations, continue fighting the black market and competeing against other LPs in a price war. We do have the advantage of being positioned globally as well as being federally legal to allow exporting but that advantage will end, at some point. As soon as the states legalize on the federal level we'll be jumping from the domestic war to a global war. The US currently has better weed, better brands and better more diverse products. 

The problem with people on this board is everyone is super focused on what Aphria is doing specifically and compares it solely to other bloated Canadian LPs like Canopy and Aurora. Look at what's happening elsewhere, what could possibly change over time and how Aphria will be able to compete in the FUTURE landscape, not the comfortable, "Canada rules the industry" type of thinking that's going on today. Aphria will be bought, guaranteed. We just have no clue at what price and whether it'll be friendly or hostile. Be prepared to hold long and be prepared to see random drops in SP for no reason and stop praying for catalysts. The only person what should care about near term catalysts are traders, because I guarantee the gap ups that we see will sell off, unless the sector trend changes. We know we're in tandem with all the other big names as pointed out recently (60%+ drops this year across the sector). If you investing in Aphria, you're really just investing in the industry as a whole (for now). If you don't like Canopy or Aurora and think they're going down more, then Aphria likely is too. If you're truely long and prepared to hold for another 1-2 years, then Aphria is definitely the best choice. 

One last thought, a JV is absolutely the best possible thing for us right now. It'll alow us to have more organic growth, be seen as a safer investment in the space and any buyout would likely be friendly at a price respectable for the longs. The longer we float around like a wholesaler at a basement valuation, the higher the risk for a hostile. We're a f.ucking turn-key operation with zero commitments and that's a bad thing, especially at such a low cap. If we get brought down into the $5s again I'm loading up big time because if an entity is waiting to pull the trigger I think that would be the time beacuse any lower than that, there's no way the shorts are comfortable.    
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