RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Help me understand Puffertime,
On Orvana, I revised my expectation for Don Mario from an average head grade of 1.8 g/t down to 1.54 g/t on September 15.
"For fiscal Q4, I am expecting 50 percent of the gold production to come from the Las Tojas satellite open pits which I am modeling with a strip ratio of 7 at a head grade of 1.54 g/t.
So I am looking for gold production of around 7,400 ounces, and AISC of around $1400 which makes Don Mario break even at current gold prices."
On Great Panther, my production model was based on management gujidance, because there is no other data source other than the Q2 production report. So the model is only going to be as accurate as the management guidance.
For Orvana, I have both production models and financial models, and I look at both bullish and bearish scenarios. At Mandalay Resources, it is a turn around story at 2 underground mines, and by their nature, it takes more time to fix problems that arise in an underground mine.
The fundamental investment case is solid for all 3 stocks. Orvana will has Don Mario SART as a growth story plus new projects in Spain. Great Panther tripled total gold equivalent production relattive to last year, and Mandalay Resources will at least double their gold production over the next 2 years.