RE:TORSTAR WILL UNDERGO A MAJOR SHAKE UPWhat we are evidencing is the death rattle of the Voting Trust. The suspension of the dividend is the first sign they see the end is near, even with $52 million in the bank.
It is extremely difficult to predict how this will all play out as we aren't dealing with reasonable and rational individuals, starting and ending with Honderich. Here's my prediction of how this will play out:
First off, they will no doubt bring in an expensive big-name consulting firm to advise them on what to do as their business instincts are at best dreadful. Paying six or seven figures to a bunch of smart kids to chart out your future strategy is the obvious desperate reaction to the disaster they are witnessing. The consultants lay out the options with selling at the top of the list. Heads begin to spin...
In parallel, they begin to seriously question if they have the right CEO to lead them away from death's doorstep. All of his failures and shortcomings will be highlighted and the cost of jettisoning him will be hotly debated. Pay him now or pay him later and the humiliation of acknowledging you messed up another CEO selection will consume the Voting Trust for weeks. The priest will be summoned to administer the last rites.
In the delirium, the idea of a new CEO as the wonder treatment will come to them to delay the Grim Reaper. They will have the search firm they recently used on speed dial. The wise partner will come in and convince them it's a longshot to find someone smart enough to do the job and also dumb enough to take the job, at any price.
Thrashing about in denial they will ask if they could appoint another internal stooge to delay the inevitable. Even in their delirious state, they will realize this would only expedite their demise.
At this stage, with the lights flickering, they will conclude it's time to concede the inevitable and pass the torch to a new owner who can maintain the Atkinson Principles. They will assuage their consciences as the lights go out on the Voting Trust by blaming Google, Facebook and the fickle fate of time for their failures.
A new owner will pay a reasonable price to acquire the shares. They will assume control and follow some derivation of best practices in running a 21st-century media company. Postmedia will go through the same process and I would expect some combination of the two companies to realize significant cost savings.
Time will tell if this is an accurate prediction. MW