RE:RE:Well done longs!! Good Morning Skyplt & all longs. Well said sir.
No doubt this has been a massive grind for all of us. While Aphria continues to execute, there has been no shortage of bad news from the other LP's financials, getting caught cheating, little support from the analyst community, ongoing shorting, I could go on and on.
I have to admit with everything going on, it's hard not to allow doubts to creep in and second guess yourself when you see red day after day. I kept feeling that it was all external factors that are causing the red and not Aphria's performance. I am constantly reminded by Jeff Bezo's saying in 2008 when Amazon was tanking that "the company is not the stock, and the stock is not the company". The sector will unfortunately perform in unison until our execution story is obvious. It's my feeling now that we are at a tipping point where it will soon be very difficult to ignore our value. It's was previously a challenge when week after week we didn't know when DD would get approved.... We no longer have to worry about that. It's my hope that like you say Sky, Irwin has some extra news Monday along with DD. A JV of some sort would be perfect. It is a strange coincidence about Montelez's new factory that was announced this week - I'd love to hear about some kind of JV with Aphria. But if not, than Irwin and Aphria need to do whatever they can to demonstrate that good numbers are coming. I have been saying for awhile that I believe EU GMP will be huge as we can export at higher margins for Aphria One. It only makes sense that X amount of inventory for Aphria One will go to Germany with DD servicing Canada. This is the peice that analysts are not buying into in terms of the numbers and they are just not getting it. One of them even asked if there was too much supply, can they ship to Europe and they answered that they would be able to but analysts still aren't buying it. A supply deal or something that proves how much product will go to Europe changes the narrative in my opinion and makes it harder to ignore the numbers. I think analysts see the others doing so bad and almost can't believe how good we will be doing.
In addition, analysts are not properly accounting for the fact that our products are competively priced. As I look through the OCS store, why would I pay 3x more for Hexo vs an Aphria product. It makes no sense. Other LP's will continue to find it difficult to compete with us, the exception being OGI but they don't have the scale we will have. I'd love to see an JV related to Rec 2.0, than an equity deal, then perhaps buy out OGI.
I originally invested in APHA as I believed it would be an execution story. I do believe Vic set up the initial business for success being a low cost producer and DD with the Mastronardi boys will be very difficult to compete with. With this approval, I'm less worried about my investment as I know each q going forward will get better. The q after our first harvest (Feb I believe, reporting in April), should be huge but I believe January reporting for Nov will show continued better numbers as well.
It's time for a short roasting. Shorts who maintain their position have become greedy and should move onto other LP's which will continue to struggle.
Go Aphria!
skyplt wrote: The timing of any PR will be telling.
I just scoured the newswires and found only the usual (MarketWatch, cannabis news type agencies).
I am not Irwin Simon, and I am sure he has a plan...that being said, if I were in the PR department, and in fact there was a JV in the works, I would recommend dropping a double bomb on the shorts on Monday.
In my perfect world a halt would happen at 0930 EST due to 'material' news. The DD approval has been anticipated for months; but a surprise JV would (IMHO) trigger a short squeeze that just might be the catalyst to propel the price of APHA stock more in line with the others in this sector.
It's a nice thought over coffee.
BTW, though I am not a smoker, the Solei oil really is a game changer. Funny thing is I was going through airport security yesterday and put my 30ml bottle in the little bag of carry on liquids. Admittedly I was a little nervous.
Not an issue. Ironically, it was the lady ahead of me who got pulled aside because (and I cannot make this up) she had exceeded her liquid limit because she had "Bingo daubers" in her carry on. Too funny!
Very soon it will be a non event for aging baby boomers to utilize the soothing powers of CBD, not to mention some THC infused light drinks (gosh I hope they come up with a nice sipping beverage that does all the things alcohol does EXCEPT rip apart one's liver).
Thanks to DD1964, ProfC, gottahunch, and a few others who have communicated both on this site and privately through our telephone calls and e-mails. Though some
on here like to speculate and demean, I think they would be surprised by the decent folks behind the avatars.
I sincerely hope this is the beginning of a turnaround for APHA. I tend to think it will not be the turnaround for the sector rather a culling of sorts. Those executing on a solid plan (thank you Mr. Simon) will now pull away from the pack.
pdiddy1977 wrote:
To all longs and investors alike! Well done for hanging in there!!
I think we are all now on board and agree that our technology is "state of the art" Leamington APH sites are the absolute cutting edge of greenhouse technologies. We will grow and harvest far more efficiently than the competition. Our crop rotation is faster and the technology is the key. Every 6 months or so we get an extra crop...I don't have the exact numbers but definitely our yield is going to be outstanding! I'm expecting that we'll supercede 300,000 kilos now we are up and running. Automation and investment in the best of the best technology matters.
...APHA is definitely standing out!!
There is not any doubt in my mind that we are going to see deals soon!!!!
i am as bullish as anyone can be regarding our future. Next stop $20!!
Until our market cap is in line with CRON, ACB, Tilray and Canopy we are undervalued. APHRIA is the best in class and we will be valued as such sooner than later. My hope is before the end of November.
IGNORE THE BASHERS!!!!