Stope availabilty, a serious analysis and problemThe ongoing reference to " inadequate stope availabilty" as an excuse for production shortfalls doesnt sit well at all.
Heres post of mine from Aug 2017....... over 2 years ago!!!!!!........ that clearly identified a need for seven stopes in production at all times Joe O confirmed this number several times over the last two years.
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.pvg/pretium-resources-inc?postid=26572794
Note that the PVG press release of the same date alluded to 27 additional stopes being developed at that time. A later release stated that a total of 42 were either in production or being prepped ready for production. This I thought was a major step in the right direction.
Yesterdays CC, Joe stated there were 6 or 7 stopes in pfoduction and the temporary loss of one stope was the prime cause of the missed production. Untill this weekend I suspected that inadequate quantities of fill was the obvious explanation for "stope unavailability" Think about it, if two years is inadequate to get to where they need to be , how much longer do they need??
Then I finally woke up. 1000 metres of development monthly is an obscene amount of development to undertake in parrallel with feeding a mill......... regardless of the size of the mill. They probably have dozens of stopes semi prepared , ready for productiion. When Joe says we have a problem with inadequate number of stopes , what he really means is wehave a problem with inadequate number of stopes, WHICH WILL SUPPLY A HEAD GRADE IN EXCESS OF 8 GRAMS.
Obviously if one is trying for mill grades of say 10 or 11 grams, one can only take a certain amount of lower grade tonnage.
If you go back to Q2 2017 , look at the head grades when Cleo was being mined. Thats what everyone here has been waiting for. Guess what??? If another Cleo has not been identified and mined over a 2 year period, then these jewellry boxes are not ubiquitous as Joe stated numerous times.
That is why this mine is looking increasingly like a 7 or 8 gram operation....
The shortfall in tonnage in Q3 is a double whammy in the making. I am sure the mill can handle 3800 tpd but they've never been effectively challenged. Joe and co will have to decide on 3800 tonnes at perhaps 7 grams or 3300 tonnes at 8 grams.
I look forward to serious counter arguments , backed up by facts, not backed up by Joes ongoing grossly overoptimistc estimates , with selective dissemination of relevant facts