RE:RE:Well Donny boy....RuudinFrance wrote: Irishmantoo wrote:
Hey Ruud.. having fun yet?
LOL
You got metriggered Irish.
I'll see what I can do.
May turn to nothing but I'll start on it.
Having fun and all of you guys/gals, you too, try to
have fun
P.S.:
after the "LOL" a continuous giggle :-)
Back again :-)
As off September PIPE presentation:
By the way (1): I hope that they are better informed than our friend is (sure that’s your Donut).
By the way (2): That’s after the July 23 news release:
So, what have we got, what is PIPE’s opinion?
Slide 15:
Value per fully diluted share CAD 2.94, but, there always is a “but”, that’s per 209 million shares FD.
Our “expert” (sure that’s your Donut) has told us that the warrants will not be exercised, so the actual SP in his valuable calculations (huh?),(and he does proclaim faith in management too), should be 209/192x2.94=3.20 CAD. Well, sorry, but why does he then write “I seriously doubt we will be at $2.70 by August”, when he should know the actual value already is higher than that figure right now.
OK, I get it, PIPE doesn’t really know what they’re about (sure that’s your Donut).
Sure, admitted, at present the market agrees with The Donut.
Note (1):
This value is only for 2P (proven and probable) and discards the value of 66% of the acreage.
As PIPE writes it so gently: “No value incorporated for 2/3rd of Pipestone Energy acreage base.”
I would like to add that Montney “A” and lower Montney have not been taken into consideration by PIPE either, there is some future upside there.
Calculations by PIPE are always (as in this presentation) based on: “Calculated utilizing US$55 WTI and C$1.40 AECO with no inflation.”
Aren’t we happy with
MilitaryMan’s pricing numbers as provided today:
Daily Spot AECO, average price year to date: CAD 1.63
Daily Spot Henry Hub, average price year to date: US$2.60x 4/3=CAD 3.47
Don’t try to be smart and tell me that one is in BTU and the other in GJ.
Conde@Edmonton, average price year to date: US$52.81x4/3=CAD 70.40
Note: Yes, we do deliver 5mmcf/d to Henryhub. Thanks Garth, good move.
Thanks MM, this made things easy for me.
So, why my “By the way (2):
I think that I explained it before. Look it up if you want.
Slide 16:
Have a look at the “embedded flexibility”.
So, after the TWM deal they already have completed (outside budget for 2019) three additional wells that were drilled by BBI. In field infrastructure should be completed (they did get money to complete the battery after all and the pipelines were in the BBI/PIPE deal) and it is well possible (conjecture only) that PIPE will make use of the “embedded flexibility”.
They have the right and the ability to increase production, to increase revenue, increase FCF if you will.
I believe they will.
Didn’t I read somewhere that Keyera already has taken a FID on the Wapiti plant extension?
You’ll see that PIPE will reach maximum infrastructure capacity a lot quicker then management presently lets us know (see presentation).
Would they have made unrealistic sales plans, I believe they’ve been a bit on the conservative side.
My forecast?
We’ll reach 24,000 boe/d in 2020, maybe even more.
Slide 19:
“Expected to produce ~$30 million of free cash flow above maintenance capital in 2020”
Slide 6:
Forecast to Generate >$90 MM free cash flow above maintenance at 33 Mboe/d
Between the two, my guess would be CAD 60MM FCF by end 2020.
EPS will be CAD 0.32
Give us a multiplier of 15 (one may be optimistic) and we get to a SP of CAD 4.80.
Mind you, that’s only based on EPS and value of 66% of land has not been included.
So, Mr “expert” (sure that’s your Donut), please refute the above.
I did have fun writing this. It was not so hard as I normally read presentations and then know “all’s well”.
Our Donut never does anything so arduous and he just writes down platitudes and his own undocumented “truths”.
To
Jessie: “Ata girl” (for standing up to The Donut), but what I did here above, you can do yourself as well. It’s not that hard.
And I do agree with
Irish, that Donnyboy (sure that’s your Donut), at times, comes up with something worthy, but this happens not very often and mostly is accidental and/or anecdotal, no serious DD at the base of it. Never ever posts a link concerning what he states (well, I spotted one, once).
The reason why I am so terribly unhappy with our friend (sure that’s your Donut), is that he is not true. He’s been “Righand”, “Casperwy” and a few other names (ask
Lukasknight, he might know all of his nicks (maybe
Irish can be of help as well)).
Look Donut up at SH-MRS and the foulmouthing and namecalling jumps out at you.
Not a person one should put trust in.
Thanks Irish for having me do this.
Have fun.