TickerTwit wrote: Personally I've been doing this since early 2015, but I had prior exposure to corporate financial analysis beginning 2010. I don't think luck has been a factor and I don't think I'm exceptional. I have some idea of what to look for in stocks, especially in materials. I began as a swing-trader, but found it stressful and switched to value investing. Now I go after deeply devalued dividend-paying companies that I think, after a close look, are fundamentally sound and tolerable for a long hold. Stock-picking isn't guesswork; it's research, analysis, and decision.
Among my largest holdings are ENB (~45% total return in about 2.5 years), DIV (~50% total return in three years), and AD (~45% total return in 18 months). These were studied picks, and my positions were increased on successive proofs of performance. I was not the only investor who picked them. Some of the returns were enhanced with retrading (notably DIV) and arbitrage (ENB's buyout of ENF created several opportunities where the market was mispricing the buyout offer, allowing dividend doubling as well as 'extra' capital gains). DF was another example of severe market mispricing (35% total return in ten months, my smallest but most entertaining holding).
Fund managers: very different animals from individual investors. It's not their money, and they play the market by different rules. They can win for themselves without winning for you.
And finally, I don't need you to believe me. I'm simply pointing out that stock picking can be rewarding. I'm not telling you to buy ENB (I don't pump) and I'm not telling you to dismiss ETF's (they can be useful). Nothing stops you from using ETF's
and value investing. But you have to work a lot harder with the latter, and that isn't possible for everyone at every stage of their lives. I'm retired now and I have the time for it.
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YoungInvestor91 wrote:
By far and away, most stock pickers can not beat the market over a 10+ year period. If you truly beat the market by 2-5x the average return, then you're an exception and likely have been very lucky.
How long have you outperformed to this extent? If you've done it for more than 10 years, I'd love to see a screenshot of your returns beating the S&P500. Otherwise I have a very hard time believing you, especially when study after study shows the average investor can't beat the market, and neither can hedge fund pros.