Chemtrade Logistics Income 6 50 Convertible Unsecured Subordinated Debentures T.CHE.DB.E

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Conference Call

[Kherson]

GregC24 wrote:

Fantome wrote:

Kherson wrote:

Fantome wrote:

Kherson wrote: Caustic Soda prices are not gonna increase as Davis hopes for 2020 because of the overhang from that price fixing scandal that came to light 6 months ago. But what Davis has made very clear is that the 4th quarter financials will be worse than the 3rd quarter!
Kherson

Here is what the facts are...


1...in the 3Q report the company said that Adjusted EBITA for 2019 would be in the low end of the range 335-375 million...soooo..let's say 335 million..the very lowest...

2...total Adjusted EBITA for the first 9 months was 225 million

3....Adjusted EBITA for the 3Q was 90 million

Simple math...

A.... 335-225 = 110 million

B....110-90 = 20 million

Therefore according the company financial reports and outlook they are predicting an increase of 20 million in 4Q over the Adjusted EBITA in 3Q....the last time I checked..an increase is not the same thing as a decrease!!!!

With all due respect my friend...I think you should find another horse to beat...

Ther only way you can be right is if they are lying in the 3Q report and this of course as you well know would subject them to the possibility of a class action suit and IMO Mark is too smart to put himself and the company in that situation...

And there is the rub! $110 million for adjusted EBITA in the 4th quarter just ain't gonna happen, plus I firmly believe that we will be seeing more writedowns. 
Khersons
 

Guess you know better than management!!!
 

Can you both be right?
Let me start by saying that we're confirming the guidance we gave in May, although as indicated in August, we now expect to be -- we now expect to be at the bottom end of that range. For the year-to-date, excluding the litigation reserve, we've generated $265.2 million of EBITDA and $120.6 million of distributable cash. Due to lower caustic pricing, a slight seasonal weakness of some of our businesses and our usual CapEx profile. We expect to generate the lowest quarterly EBITDA and distributable cash of the year in Q4.

 

 

Looks like Greg and myself are the only ones who actually listened to the Conference Call!
Kherson