Antibe Therapeutics Inc(Pre-Merger) ATBPF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Cautious to a fault?

[Actuarial]

The risk with ATB-346 now is only timeline but not the probability of sucess based on its p-value and COX result at 75mg dose. You have no idea about paired t-test. So you don't understand that a larger sample would usually produce a smaller p-value than a small sample does, do you?

CyrolQue wrote: oh great! now the "low p-value on a sample of 12 people" guy speaks . . . . EOM

Actuarial wrote: Invest into blue chip stocks instead of Bio ventures. That's my suggestion to you if your investment appetite is anywhere near risk free.

CyrolQue wrote: Please, spare yourself the ridicule of the 80% statistic. Don’t you have anything else to say? Only brain dead investors would stick to the “80% prob of delay, 80% prob of delay, 80% prob of delay, . . . .”. sometimes I envy people like you You must be really happy in your one-dimensional nirvana . . . . 80% prob of delay, 80% prob of delay, 80% prob of delay, . . .  this explains all, 80% prob of delay, all delays are ok, 80% prob of delay . . . . like a broken record or better like an ostrich burying its head in the sand.

qwerty22 wrote: If you're going to invest your money in the outcome of clinical trials its probably best to understand how clinical trials work. There's plenty of opportunity to do that by reading material online. If you did that you would know we are in business-as-usual territory here. Its not about taking things lightly its about understanding the situation. If you want you could read 100 things about clinical trials, one of those things could have been Antibe's anticipated finish date. To take your position it would seem that you read one thing.

Yes the whole stretched, uncertain timelines of biotech are frustrating. Rub those up against a greedy, nervous and impatient market and you get what we have. In my view if you want to trade this process go ahead if you can make money. If you are long you have to realize that if something happens 70-80% of the time then expect it to happen this time and incorporate it into your investing strategy. If your investing strategy is to constantly b1tch about stuff then you've successfully done that, congratulations.

I agree this could bleed into 2020.

CyrolQue wrote: What emerges from the delays of the current trial is that ATE mgmt seems to have been cautious to a fault with the inclusion requirements. To some point, this is understandable. Having been burnt to almost death during PhI, they take no chances with PhII. At first, I thought this to be positive as it was de-risking the investment. However, it is beginning to seem they have gone overboard with cautiousness. The historical example of Montgomery’s ‘cautious to a fault’ tactics in World War 2 comes to mind. Of course, we only risk our money and not our lives. 

I find it fascinating that knowledgeable people on this board, take the delays so lightly. Every delay brings us closer to patent expiry and that translates to millions in lost revenues. Every delay brings us closer to another round of dilution, which will limit our upside. I wonder, if these delays are so well expected, how come mgmt does not incorporate them in their forecasts? Don’t the know about the, for instance, 80% delay statistic? Also, is a one-month delay the same with a twelve-month delay? after all, they're both delays

In any case, if this week is lost, we seem to be heading to 2020 for the trial results. ATE seems to have the cash at hand to make it without another round of dilution. But if the decide to continue treading as cautiously, we should expect to be diluted again in January or even sooner.

GTLA