RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:News Out'Investors have been buying the hype from NPK, while farmers have been much slower to buy the product. Now reality is setting in. Sorry for rubbing it in, but I have been saying so numerous times on this board."
I don't necessarily agree that investors were buying the hype. I calculated that if indeed verde were to hit their stated 2019 target then the sp would have been conservatively in the 90 - 1.20 range, so the market had the sp correctly in show me mode. IMO, today's sell off is moreso due to swing traders dumping, market maker games and the fact that this was a poorly worded NR which left very little encouraging news for the coming several quarters as the rainy season approaches.
Production has gone from 29.6K in 2018 to a forecast of 110K for 2019 YE (over 350% growth) while keeping margins in line, which is encouraging; but these first few hundred thousand tonnes are, as forecast, not coming easily. I agree with you that farmer interest is just not growing as quickly as predicted in the sales targets and it's really a guessing game as to when farmers prove or do not prove out the worthiness of k forte for their farms.
Cristiano has proven that they can bring added production capacity online quickly and effectively but obtaining permits is proving a far more challenging hurdle. The difficulty in obtaining these permits makes me wonder how many years would it take verde to obtain the needed permits to meet their phase 2 target? Also, they really need a clearer sales strategy. If farmers in Brazil are proving to be obstinately slow in switching to k forte then why is verde not focuing more on North American distribution and sales where margins are much much higher?
If the company proves they can execute on all fronts growing pains of these early production years are going to continue. All imo and admittedly from the bleachers...