Price woes Some commentary on Eve. This is my opinion only, no facts or evidence. Guided based on observed trading activity and a little analysis and psychology. Sorry if it is a bit of a lengthy rant.
What are we seeing.
Typically, daily activity is at insanely low volumes (and low dollars); other than today Eve is hovering in the ~$50k to ~$80k range on the daily (which is absurdly low, and even on a higher volume day like today it's still only at ~$125k so far). The trend is down. The bids are being eaten up in miniscule and seemingly ridiculous / unjustified low-dollar 500 and 1,000 tranches, dragging the price down constantly.
Who.
There are short-term traders. These are pools of investors who aren't long, and are simply looking to trend their targeted investment in and out, picking up (low) and cashing in (higher). Churn profits on a short-term basis. It is their mandate to have a stock move in a way that makes them money (drops and rises).
There are shorters (actually shorting the stock, not short-term traders). There is "seemingly" low short activity, but when contextualized with the low daily volumes / dollars on Eve, this is actually still a material amount of shorting activity (lately hovering around the ~10% of all activity). These are pools of investors who (to be successful) require that the trend of their targeted stock is downward. This investment only makes sense if this holds true, because they need a drop that covers + a little bit (or a lot) more to make it worthwhile (worthwhile in terms of the $$ and the risk inherent in shorting).
There are longs divesting of their shares. This is out of fear, or due to lack of confidence (in the market, sector, or Eve specifically), or they have reached the tipping point of anxiety, or have made a change to their assumptions regarding the fundamentals, or have lost faith in management, or maybe just didn't understand what they originally bought into and are scared / running (bought-in originally on "hope" alone), etc. etc. etc.
There are new longs investing. They have identified the potential of Eve and see an opportunity (especially at these prices), they have scoured the fundamentals and it makes sense to invest, they have faith in management, they like the German agreements, that despite the state of the sector they accept the risk of buying-in, etc. etc. etc.
There are longs staying long. Watching closely and holding, perhaps with a degree of anxiety based on recent price action and sector woes, but still staying long. Whatever the original reason or price they bought in, they are staying the course. And depending on their average (if above current levels)... a loss isn't a loss until you sell at a loss (these are investors who will wait for the gains, when the valuation is reflective of Eve's value and the share price drives above their average price point).
Causes of price woes.
There are too many to discuss, but here are a few thoughts.
In Eve's case, it only takes a small number of transactions (literally in the thousands of dollars) to significantly move the price lower or higher... isn't that crazy? But this is venture / penny stock territory, right... so it is all fair game until (unless) Eve becomes the company and valuation size we all hope for in the future, hopefully shifting out of penny-sized movements, and maybe even into a more reputable exchange (with volumes trading action that help to at least minimize the impact of this type of ugliness).
Fear can drive the price down. News, the sector performance, a small drop as a result of a few other scared investors divesting, etc. etc. etc.... might prompt a herd of investors to divest, and it becomes a onslaught of downward pressure of the valuation (again, small volume and activity in the thousands of dollars can significantly impact the valuation).
I agree that boards like Stockhouse shouldn't sway an investor's mind (to buy or sell, only due diligence should have that influence). But I have seen posts that suggest that these boards do not have that sway, and I don't buy it 100%. For example... if a short-term trader(s) can keep pushing the bids lower (or asks higher), and investors fill those orders... well then the price will drop (or rise)... and at these daily volumes / dollars... it could literally only take a few doom-and-gloom posts to scare a few longs out of their investment (or bright-and-shiny-days-ahead posts to convince a long to buy-in) and influence Eve's price down or up... possibly even getting a herd of investors to follow suit. Think about this from a short-term trading perspective: buying at $0.17 and selling at $0.21 is a ~23.5% return... if you could swing that churn (or an equivalent churn) once every week on a $10k investment... you would have more than $80k in 10 weeks (that would be hard to sustain, and is loose / dirty math for sample purposes only, but is only meant to illustrate the point). And, it is typically fearful or less savvy investors (in the cannabis space, almost exclusively retail investors) who fund this type of process. So, when you see a post that is altruistically looking to convince you to divest or invest, it may be someone with good intentions, or may be someone looking to make some $ at your expense... don't be fooled by soothsayers... i.e. doomsday(sayers) or shiny-object(sayers).
Do I believe that market manipulation happens? Absolutely. I'd guess there are investors out there happy to get down, dirty and subversive if it makes them $. There are also inadequate protections (checks & balances, and repercussions for wrong-doing) in our reglutory framework, in my opinion.
Let's all be clear too. The sector is rocked. Don't point a finger singularly at Eve, point a finger at the sector... which is dragging Eve down with it. Eve has one slight advantage though, which is that it wasn't part of the full-blown broken-valuation party that all the other big LPs are involved in (and by the way, I have an opinion... that it's true that retail investors should take a big part of the blame for this over-valuation mess).
The reasons are etc. etc. etc.
Some other general thoughts.
Please don't denegrate Melinda. Not cool. She has really done nothing egregious here. She is also probably doing a better job tactically and strategically than many of the other CEOs in this space (debt, agreements, production capacity, etc.). Yes, there are shortcomings / issues... and they should address these... but calling her names or documenting filthy words in a forum like this is unacceptable.
FYI... I will say it again along with others who keep saying it (and again and again). News is news. Updates are updates. Communication is communication. Don't mix these all into one bag. A news release is something that describes something materially newsworthy (and costs money to put out there). If you want intermittent updates and communication... or need questions answered... or need some psychological support on your investment... you must reach-out to investor relations directly... that is their purpose... and they will respond with the information they can legally and (tactically / strategically) publically disclose. And here is the true answer (generally): Eve is planning to get their expansion approved, get their brand established, and sell as much freakin' product as possible... the eventual fundamentals / success will flesh-out a valuation that accurately reflects the company (and will hit the share price accordingly).
Just a PS... I am not sure the query form on their site works, so if you want to reach-out to them, would recommend you email directly from a personal email address to the email address they provide on their site (I have used the form on their site and got no response, but always get a response in a couple / few days when emailing investor relations directly from my personal email).
There are concerns, risks, etc. Don't buy into Eve (or this sector) without doing your homework and accepting the risk.
Good, ethical, awesome people exist out there (and are even here on Stockhouse)... but if you think Stockhouse is a forum filled and heavily weighted with posts from those people... well, that's just foolish.
Parting thought. Could the share price drop further? Sure it could... though (my opinion only) I see the current range as somewhere around the floor. But I haven't forgotten why I invested... and that HC expansion approval is coming... and there are a bunch of really solid German (binding) agreements. I hold my shares for those brighter days, where (while) Canopies & Auroras underperform and shelve projects, Eve exceeds expectations and generates revenues at multiples greater than their current cap. It's my risk to bear. Yours is yours.
Peace, long Eve!!