My two cents First, thank you to the knowledgeable posters who have fed this board with invaluable information. You know who you are. This has been a very rewarding investment for me. I feel compelled to put in my two cents at this point.
In my humble view, the valuation of this company essentially went from a perceived high-growth smallcap with earnings visibility to one not being able to generate profit despite reasonable revenue.
In addition, they now have a weak balance sheet with debt making up more than their cash position. People keep comparing TH to pure R&D biotechs, but the companies with higher valuations have a much better cash positions to fund the R&D projects. The market is discounting dillution which is difficult to estimate at this point. So back to the model, TH has become a company that will burn cash as opposed to generating cash - at least for the next 3-4 quarters.
I also have a concern regarding the agreement between Taimed and Thera. Remenber Thera ended the agreement with Serono because sales were not picking up to THs satisfaction. I wonder what would happen if the relationship between Taimed and Thera deteriorated in a similar dynamic. I would welcome any feedback on the fine print of this agreement.
Finally, the market may view Thera as an accidental NASH player. They could get lucky, but the field is crowded. Above all, in my opinion, Thera management seems to run after too many rabbits. I wonder what the weekly salesforce meetings sound like. Still quite a bit of uncertainty. We are now in a "show me" phase. Clearly, confidence has eroded and good execution is the only remedy.