RE:What moves the needle?It all depends on how the well is completed.
This is a vertical well fracked within a 125 m zone, however is situated within a 300 m sandy turbitidte zone which I would assume is geologically inter-connected and equally charged. We could likely increase the current vertical well completion to 300 m to get a multiple on production. Multi zone completions may be possible in the heavily condensate areas depending on pressure gradients wihtin a specific zone. The gas could easily lift smaller volumes of condensate up the well tubing (say 20 bbs/mmcf). Nobody can truly predict what is possible without having all data in hand and experience in this field.
Is a horizontal possible? I sure hope so and yes I belive so. If so, then this zone of 125m could likley fetch 5 to 10 x the gas flow out of a horizontal. So if 125 m = stabilized flow of 1 mmcf/d, then let's say that a horizontal, should it be possible, could be 7 mmcf. Consider decline at who knows what rate (maybe start at 7 mmcf and a steady decline to 2.5 mmcf by year end) for a first year average of 4.75 mmcf/d. That's about $19M in gas porduction for that well in year 1. Each mmcf/d production is worth $4MM CDN annually.
Will the commercial economics be there if we see comingled flow at 1 mmcf. I would say yes, we are most likely commercial. Anything above 1 mmcf would be an absolute present.
The exciting part for me is that if they find 1 mmcf, literally as a needle in a haystack (second well within 1,600 square km), there is no doubt that 2 mmcf or greater is out there.
GMP targets of $9 - yes the experts believe that we are onto something big!
500wedge wrote: Been doing some reading thru the posts and some interesting comments. Numbers to be confirmed like possible .02-.05 or higher.... A question to those with a more in depth knowledge of gas discoveries and associated flow numbers. What are the possible economical numbers the market is waiting to see and the corresponding SP movement based on flow numbers achieved? TIA and GLTA