RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:(1.3 +1.3 + 1.6) - 55% crossflow - 55% decline = Happy dance It's a conservative approach, putting a margin of safety on my expectations with hopes for even better. X-flow may be nil, but you simply can't add up the 3 intervals' initial rates to estimate the initial co-mingled flow rate.
JOI - Agree that you could just as easily re-name this variable 'miscellaneous' but, by adding a fudge factor on the initial flow assumption, you start with a more reasonable number, on which you can then apply another reasonable assumption for decline. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
It's marginally above the 0.2 to 0.6 mmcf estimates bandied about, but 0.85 mmcf still makes sense to me as a conservative guess. I'm still hoping that Devepinar zone 1 beats these numbers by a significant margin, but I'm comfortable heading into the NR because its a number that I think the market would be good with.
If Dev surprises significantly higher, I believe that excitement drives a run back to $3+ (or more?) over the next days and weeks as the economic potential of the BCGA comes back into focus.