RE:RE:RE:ShortedJackadams wrote: Again I have nothing against ARX but 20% premium buyout would run approximately 4.5 billion given current market cap and debt. Right now the dividend is partial funded with debt but should in theory be self-fund once Dawson rolls out. If ARX hits their projected 2020 numbers from their December presentation they appear to estimate free cash flow in the 250-350 million range from my calculation and current AECO pricing and condensate projections with total revenue in the ~850-1100 million range given they are now project no growth in condensate or oil compared to 2019. I had original assumed growth in this area. So even if a buyout firm cut all sustaining capital, dividend, development, etc. it would take a way more than double your 2.5 year projection to pay for itself and that is not even considering cost of capital, etc. and also the large downside risk if (when) a recession hits in the next few years. I really like the area and as I said am short ARX against TOU/VII using options. If I am wrong I pay the price as normal.
Page 11 the presentation appears to show new production of 5000 bbls/day of condy and 2500 bbls /day of oil, mainly coming on in Q2 2020. Production this year was 27300 bbls/day yet production next year is still estimated to be only 27300 to 31000. It's a bit confusing, but maybe the exit rate in 2020 would be 33000 bbls/day. If so you'd think it would be hilighted. If not I'd like to know where they are losing production.