TSXV:HRE.H - Post by User
Comment by
atomicnumber31on Dec 15, 2019 12:27pm
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Post# 30456742
RE:RE:β¨οΈπ€ HRE .v ππ²
RE:RE:β¨οΈπ€ HRE .v ππ²123buyholdhope wrote: Always interested in using a stock to learn how others arrive at conclusions.
I can’t find any recent news on Stans and the Lithium project. The website is long out of date (which immediately worries me for any company with serious ambitions). However, my belief on the high unlikelihood of any Lithium agreement for Stans is based on the following –
1. Belief that Stans will have little to no money to bring to any Lithium project. The recent award based on indicated funder legal costs (US$ 5-6 million only to the date of award); plus multiples (3 - 4x) of the funders’ costs as the commission to funders (so stated by management to attendees at the past AGM and outlined previously by others on this board). Plus $14 mill in debts to be settled as indicated in the last financial statement most of which is related to accumulated costs over the years (excluding funders costs).
2. Appears certain leading management are selling out of the company shares which seems counterintuitive, if you believe that the company may experience a surge in SP. Surely insiders should know their company’s future prospects and selling for tax loss does not seem sensible if such a move (5X+) is so close?
3. The REE facility is in mothballs. It will take millions to bring back on line; in particular, to modify to produce to offtake specifications, which is what processing is all about. Further, Krygyz holds the permits for renewing the processing, which itself needs clear offtakes documented to get financiers to bite. There is no feedstock connected to this plant which Krygyz with settlement of the award will hold and there was no clear interest expressed in the past sales move by Krygyz. Russia has it own internal REE sources in development which is what strategic critical metals investment is all about today (note US moves).
4. Not clear what skills in a lithium project development scenario that the Stans management would bring, that the Russians don’t already have ready access to? Only MOUs are in place as far as I can see and these are weak legally; especially, as they are not predicated on any previous legally binding agreements between any of the parties involved on a specific project.
5. If the Stans SP jump is based purely on a hoped for surge in REE interest in general (as e.g., in 2010); that 'all boats' will set sale I think that this maybe too hopeful. 2020 is not like 2010. Looks like the US may have a part one China agreement (we'll see). If so, this seriously reduces the likelihood of a REE Chinese black swan event. More likely, we will still see REE global project growth but my guess is investors will focus on those few companies who will become directly involved in any new chains during 2020.
I may be wrong in my analysis but I have to go by the data and statements out there and I am at a loss as to see where Stans moves from here. I would be happy to see any data based or document driven responses re., a company I have followed for a long time.
GLTA -
https://twitter.com/EarthsRare
Most of what you seek is in/on SEDAR comopany filings.
While i agree with 90% of your assessments, the clues are all there.
Rosatom indeed involved, and one has to ask ones selve...
"Why the acqusition binge for lithium properties" ?
Possibly a shortage to be announced ?